Thunder vs. Spurs prediction, odds, spread: 2026 NBA Western Conference finals picks for Game 3

The Oklahoma City Thunder evened their 2026 NBA playoff series with the San Antonio Spurs with a Game 2 victory at home. Now Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs return to the Lone Star State with the advantage on their side in this best-of-seven 2026 NBA Western Conference finals showdown. Two-time NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the reigning NBA champions must get a win in the next two games to regain control of the home court. Dylan Harper (adductor) and De’Aaron Fox (ankle) are questionable for San Antonio, while Jalen Williams (hamstring) is questionable for OKC. 

Tipoff from Frost Bank Center in San Antonio is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday. The Spurs are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Thunder vs. Spurs odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 218.5, up four points from the opening line. Before making any Spurs vs. Thunder picks, check out the Spurs vs. Thunder predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Spurs 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Spurs vs. Thunder:

Top Thunder vs. Spurs predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Thunder vs. Spurs, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (218.5). Twelve of the last 14 Thunder games have been Over on the total, and the Over has hit on seven straight Spurs games. This is the third-lowest total for a Spurs game all season. This is the same total as Game 2, a showdown that featured 235 points. 

The SportsLine model is projecting four Spurs players to score 13 points or more, led by Wembanyama’s 27.2 points and 17.9 points from Stephon Castle. Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to lead the Thunder with 30.2 points scored, but Chet Holmgren (16.7 points) is the only other Oklahoma City player forecasted to score over 10 points. The teams are projected to combine for 221 total points as the Over hits in 52% of simulations, making it a great selection for anybody targeting NBA parlay betting. See the Spurs vs. Thunder spread pick at SportsLine, and you can bet the Over in Spurs vs. Thunder at FanDuel here:

How to make Thunder vs. Spurs picks

After simulating each possession of Thunder vs. Spurs 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Thunder vs. Spurs, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.