Down 1-0 to the San Antonio Spurs after a double-overtime thriller in the series opener, you could argue that Wednesday night’s Game 2 is a must win for the Thunder. Mathematically that’s not true, of course. But let’s be realistic.
If the Thunder lose Game 2, that will make six losses in seven games against the Spurs this season. They very clearly have their number. And we’re supposed to believe they’re going to complete that and win four of their next five to close out the series in seven?
Not likely.
So yes, Game 2 is probably a must-win for the Thunder, and if they’re going to pull it off, they are going to need a better showing out of their back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who made just seven of his 23 shots in Game 1.
Was it just an off night for SGA? No. He had a handful of shots that didn’t fall that usually do, notably when he attacked early before San Antonio could fully set up its wall to stop him, but for the most part, the credit goes to Victor Wembanyama and a stifling Spurs defense that pretty much sold out to stop him.
In the regular season, SGA averaged 18.8 drives per game and passed out of them 37.9% of the time, per NBA.com tracking. Those drives netted him points, either by way of a bucket or a trip to the free-throw line, 74.8% of the time. Basically, he was unstoppable once he got going downhill.
Except against the Spurs, who were able to meaningfully disrupt his autopilot attacks and turn him into more of a jump shooter, which in turn made him a significantly less efficient scorer (50% vs. Spurs, down from 55% overall, and 19% from 3, down from 38% overall).
In four regular-season games, the Spurs forced SGA to pass out of his drives 50% of the time with just a 60% score rate. In Game 1, SGA racked up 30 drives (defined as starting at least 20 feet from the basket and ending up inside 10 feet), but was only able to generate five buckets out of those actions (53% score rate) as the Spurs forced him into a 53% pass rate.
That’s a very nerdy way of saying the Spurs built a wall in front of SGA that, in combination with the presence of Wembanyama, basically ruled out the possibility of his getting deep into the paint, let alone all the way to the rim, thus forcing him into one of two substantially less desirable options:
- Option 1: Kick out to the shooters who San Antonio’s perimeter defenders were sinking down off to clog up SGA’s drives, which is how Alex Caruso wound up taking 14 3-pointers. That’s by design. Caruso was a 29% 3-point shooter this season. He made eight of 14 in Game 1, but that’s not going to continue. The Spurs will take their chances all series letting Caruso, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace — basically whoever — bomb away from 3 if it means the two-time MVP can’t get to his money scoring spots comfortably.
- Option 2: SGA can’t get through the swarm of defenders jamming up his driving lanes, can’t or doesn’t pass out of the scrum, and thus is forced into a tough, often fading jump shot being contested by multiple long defenders, including the 7-foot-4 gatekeeper. Of SGA’s 23 shots in Game 1, 19 were jumpers. Only four of them were categorized as “wide open” by NBA tracking, which means no defender was within six feet.
This was a typical view for SGA as he stared down San Antonio’s defense from the top of a possession. We’ll admit this into evidence as Exhibit A.
Where is he going to go? For starters, he has Stephon Castle, a big, physical defender, in front of him. If he goes right, he’ll run into Devin Vassell at the elbow. If he uses Isaiah Hartenstein’s screen and goes left, he runs into Wembanyama.
He opts to go left, which yields nothing. What is he going to do, pull up over the human skyscraper? Good luck. Plus, Wembanyama only has to corral him for the split second that Castle is fighting over the screen. In the blink of an eye, Castle is right back in front of SGA, with Julian Champagnie sinking down off his corner shooter for good measure, and the MVP is forced into this …
Moving on to Exhibit B:
SGA is being defended by Davin Vassell, who he can’t even get past in the first place. But even if he does, look where the other four defenders are positioned. Castle has left Jalen Williams in the corner, so if SGA decides to cross over or spin backside off Vassell, he’ll run directly into Castle. If he keeps going right, he meets Dylan Harper. If he somehow gets through all that, Wembanyama is waiting in the paint. Again, the Spurs are inviting him to either pass out to one of the abandoned shooters or pull up for a jumper. SGA chooses the heavily contested jumper. No good.
Let’s check out Exhibit C:
Here, Vassell has completely turned his body to cut off SGA’s left lane and force him downhill and to his right, where, guess who, Wembanyama is waiting. You see Cason Wallace running through the lane and heading back out to the 3-point line? Champagnie (No. 30) is just letting him go so he stays in the paint. All four help defenders have sagged completely off their shooters to show SGA a totally packed picture. Wembanyama, Champagnie and Castle standing in a 45-degree line in front of SGA is what you call a wall. Any direction Gilegous-Alexander goes, he hits a road block.
Guess it’s time for another pull-up jumper over two defenders, one of whom is the guy with the eight-foot wingspan.
And finally, Exhibit D:
SGA thinks he sees an angle without a second defender standing directly in his path, and he takes it. He gets a step on Vassell, but just as he’s about to turn the corner into a splice of daylight, Wembanyama comes flying across from the other side of the paint to not only cut him off and force him into another jump shot, but actually block the damn thing.
This is the Wemby factor. He can be on the opposite side of the court and still snuff out a shot. He changes the geometry of the court to such a degree that these players are having to rewire the spatial instincts they have spent their entire life sharpening to second nature … on the fly. Nobody has ever been able to cover defensive distances like Wemby. Whatever few mistakes the Spurs make as a collective defense, he can erase. And they don’t make many.
This is what SGA was dealing with in Game 1, and what he’ll continue to deal with for as long as this series goes. The Spurs are not going to let him do anything easily. They are going to force him to make a bunch of tough jumpers or rely on his teammates, most of whom are not great individual shooters, to make a bunch of 3s as he’s forced into kick-out passes.
None of this is to say he can’t beat this defense. He’s a great midrange shooter. He’ll find ways into the paint as the series goes on. But he’s going to have to run through a wall to do it, and not just any wall. One built on and maintained by the collective strength of a bunch of big, physical perimeter defenders who are being backed by what is already the greatest rim protector and shot clocker in NBA history.
Game 2 is Wednesday night. Good luck, SGA. You’re going to have to earn your MVP stripes in this one.
