Tata Motors shares jump 5% on strong growth guidance. What are Nomura, other brokerages saying?

Shares of Tata Motors (Commercial Vehicles) rallied as much as 5% to their day’s high of Rs 420 on the BSE on Wednesday after the company outlined an ambitious roadmap for the next two years, targeting double-digit EBITDA margins, free cash flow of 7-9% of revenue, and annual investment spending of 2-4% of revenue by FY2028 as it pursues global expansion, electrification and higher-margin digital businesses.

At its Investor Day 2026, the company said it had already achieved several of its FY2027 targets ahead of schedule, including margin improvement, cash generation and strengthening its leadership position in heavy commercial vehicles.

Here’s what brokerages are saying:

JM Financial: With a buy call and target price of Rs 475, the brokerage implies an upside of 19% from current levels. Analysts said Tata Motors’ management remains optimistic on the long-term outlook for the commercial vehicle business, backed by healthy GDP growth, sustained infrastructure spending, and rising e-commerce penetration.

The brokerage also noted that GST-driven freight efficiencies continue to support demand for multi-axle trucks. While elevated diesel prices, commodity inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and the possibility of interest rate hikes remain near-term challenges, management believes these headwinds are manageable and do not materially alter the sector’s long-term growth prospects.

Also read: Tata Motors CV bets on global expansion, EVs and digital businesses for next phase of growth

Nomura:

The foreign brokerage has maintained its Neutral rating on Tata Motors with a target price of Rs 400. It said medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand has improved in June as concerns related to the recent war have eased.Following a plant visit, Nomura highlighted several initiatives undertaken by the company to enhance products and services through technology and digital integration. According to the brokerage, these efforts should strengthen Tata Motors’ long-term competitiveness and improve customer economics.

However, Nomura remains cautious on Iveco, citing weak performance over the past six months. It said it is awaiting greater clarity on the integration process and the realisation of synergies before turning more constructive on the stock.
For its forecasts, Nomura expects MHCV volumes to grow 5% each in FY27 and FY28, while EBITDA margins are estimated at 12.6% and 13.3%, respectively. The brokerage noted that volumes could see an upside if Tata Motors gains market share. It also expects Iveco’s EBIT margins to improve to 2.4% in FY27 and 5.5% in FY28.

Motilal Oswal: The brokerage has a Neutral rating and a target of Rs 416, implying 4% upside. It has turned cautious on the near-term outlook for Tata Motors’ commercial vehicle business, citing recent geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on the Indian economy. It also expects margins to remain under pressure in the near term. Read more: Tata Motors PV eyes over Rs 6 lakh crore revenue by FY31

Factoring in a more measured demand environment, Motilal Oswal now expects Tata Motors’ commercial vehicle volumes to grow at a CAGR of 6% over FY26-28. Based on this, it estimates revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax to grow at a CAGR of 8%, 8% and 10%, respectively, during the same period.

The brokerage said the stock appears fairly valued at 21.7 times FY27 estimated earnings and 18.6 times FY28 estimated earnings. The valuation is based on 12 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA for the core business, in line with peers, along with an additional value of Rs 12 per share for Tata Motors’ stake in Tata Capital.