Spurs vs. Thunder prediction, odds: 2026 NBA Western Conference finals picks for Game 5

The Western Conference Finals showdown between the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder and Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs has lived up to the hype. The best-of-7 series is tied 2-2, with each side winning one on the road. Now the series heads back to OKC for Game 5 on Tuesday night. Oklahoma City continues to deal with injuries, as Jalen Williams (hamstring) is questionable after missing Games 3 and 4, while Ajay Mitchell (calf) remains out.

Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., is at 8:30 p.m. ET. OKC is favored by 4.5 points in the Spurs vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 216.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Spurs picks, check out the Spurs vs. Thunder predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

Top Thunder vs. Spurs predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Spurs vs. Thunder, SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (216.5). The Over hit in the first three games of this series, but the Under made a big impression in Game 4, totaling just 185 points on a line of 219.5. The Under also hit in three of the five regular-season head-to-head meetings between the teams.

The SportsLine model is projecting just three Thunder players to score over 12 points, led by Gilgeous-Alexander’s 25.7 points and 16.7 points from Stephon Castle. Wembanyama is projected to lead the Spurs with 29.2 points scored, but just two other San Antonio players are forecast to score in double figures. The Under hits in 61% of simulations, making it a great selection for anybody targeting NBA parlay betting. See the Spurs vs. Thunder spread pick at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under in Thunder vs. Spurs at FanDuel here:

How to make Spurs vs. Thunder picks

After simulating each possession of Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the spread is showing all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Thunder vs. Spurs, and which side of the spread is showing value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.