The NBA’s 2026 Play-In Tournament is over, and first-round playoff series begin on Saturday. If you love parity, you love what the NBA has become. In a league that used to be wildly predictable, it really does feel like any number of teams could get hot at the right time and make a push for a championship.
That said, there are different classes of contenders. That’s what we’re here to sort out. As the chase for the 2026 NBA championship begins, below I have broken the 16 playoff teams into three classes and ranked them according to championship viability.
The Heavyweights
These are the teams that don’t need any luck. They make their own. Barring something unforeseen (like last year’s Pacers), one of these teams will be walking away with the belt.
1. San Antonio Spurs
Kirk Goldsberry dropped a crazy stat on Friday: “Every NBA team this year has an eFG% between 52 and 58. Whenever [Victor] Wembanyama is on the court, the opponents’ eFG% is below 50. He turns every offense he faces into something less efficient than the Brooklyn Nets offense.”
This is the No. 1 reason the Spurs are No. 1 on this list. Wemby changes everything. On both sides of the ball. And it’s not like he’s all the Spurs have. They’re loaded all the way down the roster. They beat OKC four times this season. Of the last 25 NBA champions, 23 have finished top-five in both offense and defense. The Spurs and Celtics are the only two teams that did it this year.
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I do think the Spurs blew a huge opportunity by not beating the Nuggets in the season finale, which would’ve pushed Denver the No. 4 seed and forced the Nuggets to play OKC in the second round, leaving the Spurs to only have to beat one of them. Instead, San Antonio is likely going to have to beat the Nuggets and Thunder in consecutive series. It’s a much tougher task. But again, I think the Wembanyama effect is so great that the Spurs not only get out of the West but win the whole thing way ahead of schedule.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
They have the likely MVP in Shai Gilegous-Alexander — an almost guaranteed scorer, particularly in the clutch, who basically never turns the ball over — and collectively the most intrusive defense in the postseason. They endured a lot of injuries this season (namely Jalen Williams, their second-best player, who managed just 33 games) and still won 64 games.
In the playoffs, always lean toward the team with the most ways to win a game. OKC can turn you over and run you out of the gym, or it can deconstruct you in the half court. The Thunder can outscore you. They can have a rough shooting night and win with their defense and/or offensive rebounding. They can play big. Double big. Small. Switch everything. Whatever the matchup dictates.
If OKC is your favorite, as they are in Vegas (-110 on FanDuel as of Saturday morning), you won’t get a strong argument from me. The bracket broke their way as they’ll only have to play one of the Spurs or Nuggets if seeds hold.
3. Boston Celtics
While everyone else is at the end of a long season, Jayson Tatum is just getting ramped up. He should be at his freshest by the second round, assuming Boston gets through the Sixers, and from there the Celtics look like the East’s most complete team.
A fully functional Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White is as good as any Big Three in the playoffs. Boston gets a bunch of offensive rebounds and doesn’t turn the ball over, both huge factors in the possession battle that will define so much of this postseason.
Coaching matters more in the playoffs, and Joe Mazzulla has proven himself elite; getting this team to 56 wins with a negative point differential in Brown’s minutes means he knows how to win the margins, where plenty of playoff series are decided.
Boston has contributors all over the roster and the identity to maximize all of them. They’re not as good as any of the top three teams in the West, but while those teams are beating up on each other Boston gets to travel a softer road.
4. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokić will be the best player in every series, and Jamal Murray, an annual playoff monster, is coming off the best regular season of his career. But Aaron Gordon is the key. Over the past four seasons, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by an average of more than 10 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, and in the 2023 playoffs, when they won it all, that number was +14.1.
First off, Gordon’s hamstring has to hold up. If it does, Denver vs. San Antonio in the conference semis sets up as a classic. No longer can opposing bigs be stashed on Gordon to serve as roaming rim protectors (Wemby, for example); he’ll kill you from the 3-point line if you ignore him now.
Everyone questions whether Denver’s defense can hold up, but it doesn’t have to be elite (and if you recall, Denver’s poor 2022-23 defense really leveled up for the championship run), given the all-world offense.
The Puncher’s-Chance Contenders
These are the teams that do have the theoretical power to land a championship haymaker against an overall superior opponent, but I wouldn’t bet on it happening.
5. Detroit Pistons
Pistons fans are going to take this ranking as a slap in the face for a team that won 60 games, but this is just where I come out. I don’t think they have enough shooting, and even though they fared well in the absence of Cade Cunningham down the stretch, in a playoff setting, they are too reliant on him to create everything to have it hold up over four series.
That said, they are in the East, which has four very good teams but no great one. Any one of those four (Boston, New York, Cleveland, Detroit) can win the conference, and once you get that far, anything is possible. But realistically, I think the list of East teams that can beat whoever comes out of the West begins and ends with Boston.
6. New York Knicks
If they meet in the second round, New York matches up perfectly with Boston. The Knicks built their team exactly like the Celtics’ 2024 title squad with a bunch of wings and a stretch five in Karl-Anthony Towns.
New York’s defense was great over the final few months, but it will be a far bigger challenge in the Serengeti that is playoff basketball, where Jalen Brunson and Towns are going to be hunted ruthlessly. The offense is a machine, however. Especially late. The Knicks boasted the third-best net rating in the clutch this season, and the best fourth-quarter point differential in the league.
Also, Mike Brown didn’t lean as heavily on his core guys (maybe besides Brunson) as Tom Thibodeau did through the season. This was always a talking point that Thibs players wear down in the playoffs. If that is really a major factor, it should be working more in New York’s favor this time around.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
This stands to be a pivotal postseason for the Cavs, who reportedly could discuss trading Donovan Mitchell if he doesn’t sign the extension for which he is eligible this summer. Will he sign the extension if the Cavs flame out in the playoffs? You can see how dots potentially connect.
The Cavs hope it doesn’t come to that and the most expensive team in the league pays off. They know the time is now. They traded a 26-year-old Darius Garland for a 36-year-old James Harden. You don’t do that because you’re looking down a long runway.
Cleveland has the superstar in Mitchell, who is one of the most electric postseason performers in the game (actually, in NBA history). He gives Cleveland a puncher’s chance against anyone.
Beyond that, the Cavs have the interior size in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, shooting, depth and coaching to theoretically support Mitchell at a championship level, and Harden frees Mitchell up to attack against defenses in rotation rather than having to create everything from the point when all eyes are set and on him.
Speaking of Harden, he remains a chess-master passer, but of course we’re all watching to see if he lays an egg in a pivotal game (or games) as he has throughout his career and certainly over his last few postseasons (seven points on eight shots in a Game 7 loss to the Nuggets last season; seven points on 2-of-12 shooting in a Game 5 loss to Dallas with the series tied 2-2 in 2024; nine points on 3-of-11 shooting in a Game 7 loss to the Celtics in 2023 in what proved to be his last game with the 76ers).
8. Houston Rockets
Houston has pretty much been dismissed by all parties as a realistic contender, but I’m still putting them in the Buster Douglas in Tokyo category. They got it together down the stretch (they won nine of their last 10 to close the regular season, albeit against a lot of tanking teams), and they could have something close to a bye in the first round against a Lakers team missing two of its three best players.
I understand the Houston skepticism. They’re too reliant on Kevin Durant to rescue stagnant possessions with difficult shots. They stink in late-game situations. They don’t have a “guaranteed to get you into good offense every time down the court” point guard. Amen Thompson can be ignored as a shooter. Alperen Sengun can’t back and spin his way down from the 3-point line over and over.
At the same time, did you hear those three names? Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. That is heavy firepower, and the Rockets have a ton of depth, wing size and versatility and shooting. Let’s say Reed Sheppard gets hot and the defense clicks in and Durant goes into Brooklyn 2021 mode; you’re telling me that the league’s No. 8 offense and No. 6 defense doesn’t have a puncher’s chance in any given series? I don’t buy that.
The Sparring Partners
These are the tune-up teams. They have no chance of winning the title and are merely here to work the contenders into shape.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have been to the last two Western Conference finals, have a 1A superstar in Anthony Edwards, and overall are a much better team than a “sparring partner” designation indicates. But go look at the bracket. You mean to tell me the Wolves are going to beat the Nuggets in the first round, the Spurs in the second round, the Thunder in the third round, and then whoever comes out of the East in the Finals? Sorry. No chance.
10. Philadelphia 76ers
I was tempted to put them in the puncher’s chance class for the simple fact that they have Tyrese Maxey, and if he could somehow get them through the first round, maybe Joel Embiid could be back for the second round. But they’re playing the Celtics in the first round. They’re not winning that series without Embiid, and probably not even with him.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
They would be in the puncher’s chance class if everyone was healthy, but they’re not. So they’re not. The only reason they’re even this high on the list is the off chance that Doncic is able to play deep in the series if the Lakers can somehow extend it to six or seven.
12. Orlando Magic
They looked great in the play-in win over Charlotte and have the talent and style to give Detroit a scare in round one, but even if they pull off that upset, they’re not going to do it two more times to make the Finals.
13. Atlanta Hawks
Could make it interesting against the Knicks. But, just like the Magic, there’s a ceiling on this team that falls well below Finals contender.
14. Toronto Raptors
Sure they defend and run and all that, but their bench advantage is likely to be lessened in the playoffs when everyone plays their main guys more. I don’t expect them to get past Cleveland in the first round. If they do, we’ve got a much bigger story to talk about than the Raptors.
15. Portland Trail Blazers
Even though I have the Spurs as my title favorite, it’s easier for me to see Portland giving San Antonio first-round trouble than it is the Suns giving OKC trouble. Portland is a nasty defensive team and has real offensive firepower led by Deni Avdija. They’re not going to beat the Spurs, but let’s just say Wemby gets hurt and San Antonio goes ice cold and somehow Portland gets through. They’re not going past Denver, or even Minnesota, in the next round. Zero championship viability here.
16. Phoenix Suns
The Suns win by playing harder than their opponent, only their first-round opponent plays harder than any team in the league and has a massive talent advantage on top of it. OKC sweeps.
