Given the stark disparity of roster talent and performance projections in the NBA Playoffs, oddsmakers have set NBA playoff series prices with an eye toward discouraging heavy action on a massive favorite to simply win the series outright.
However, sometimes these NBA betting projections can quickly become a moving target. For instance, the San Antonio Spurs, who are the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, were priced as high as -3000 to win their second-round series against the No. 6-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, who were given odds of around +1200 to +1400.
However, the calculus in the NBA futures betting odds changed quickly as the Timberwolves pulled a 104-102 Game 1 upset, bolstered by the return of star Anthony Edwards and the same hard-hat mentality that lifted them to a first-round series upset of the Denver Nuggets.
Now, the Spurs are just a modest -200 favorite in the NBA futures odds to win the series, with the Timberwolves priced around +160 heading into Game 2. The Spurs are now offered at a playable price straight up to win the series, a dramatic shift even considering the Game 1 result.
How did we get here? And what’s the betting strategy moving forward? It’s worth noting that the pre-series price was undoubtedly impacted by the projected absence of Edwards, who was originally expected to miss at least the first two games with a knee injury. But even after he was reported as available late Monday afternoon, the odds for the Spurs to win the series only moderately shifted to the -2200 to -2000 range.
However, it also appears that NBA oddsmakers simply didn’t give some clubs enough respect as we saw the Philadelphia 76ers (+650) upset the Boston Celtics in the first round after falling behind 3-1 and the Los Angeles Lakers (+425) topple the Houston Rockets in six games. The Timberwolves were given odds of around +250 in their first-round series against the Nuggets.
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Even so, this price adjustment feels like an overreaction. For analogy’s sake, say you came across a sweater at your favorite department store but passed at a price of $30. Upon a return visit the following week, you find that it’s been reduced to $3 but has a slight tear toward the bottom that is barely noticeable and could be fixed with a couple stitches. Most of us would grab the sweater, and that’s how we feel about the Spurs at this reduced price. We are passing 100% at the opening series price, but the 90%-plus discount, with the Game 1 loss representing the product defect, gives us the necessary value to make the transaction.
The Timberwolves are dangerous, but Edwards still isn’t at full strength and their overall lack of depth (five players logged at least 30 minutes in Game 1) will show up as the series continues on. We also saw San Antonio overcome a Game 2 loss on its home floor to Portland by dominating the rest of the way in a 4-1 series victory. We expect Minnesota to maybe capture another game, but will back the Spurs to finish the job in six.
For historical context, should the Timberwolves win the series, it would be among the biggest upsets in NBA playoff history. The 2007 Golden State Warriors were priced around +1200 in their upset of the Dallas Mavericks and the 1994 Denver Nuggets had similar odds when they took down the Seattle Supersonics. However, both of those underdogs won as a No. 8 seed that de the top-seeded club in the first round. We can’t find an instance in which a second-round underdog pulled the upset with a price of +1000 or greater.
However, in what is a major outlier for the NBA playoffs, the Timberwolves aren’t the only team with such an opportunity to make history in the second round. The Lakers are priced at +1500 in their second-round matchup with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (-3000) heading into Game 1 on Tuesday night.
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