The Western Conference finals take center stage on Monday night, as the Oklahoma City Thunder face the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET. These teams met five times during the regular season, with San Antonio surprisingly winning four of those matchups. Thunder star Jalen Williams played in the first four meetings before missing the final meeting, and he is set to return on Monday after missing the last six games due to a hamstring injury. His over/under for total points is 15.5, and SportsLine’s proven computer model is going Over on that number.
Meanwhile, SportsLine expert Prop Bet Guy is taking Chet Holmgren Under 26.5 points + rebounds +assists, while expert Mike Barner has Dylan Harper going Over 10.5 points. Before locking in Monday’s NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the proven computer model and team of experts at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Top NBA player prop picks on Monday
- Chet Holmgren, Thunder, Under 26.5 points + rebounds + assists
- Dylan Harper, Spurs, Over 10.5 points
- Jalen Williams, Thunder, Over 15.5 points
Chet Holmgren, Thunder, Under 26.5 points + rebounds + assists
“New series, new matchup, and I don’t love this one for Chet Holmgren,” SportsLine expert Prop Bet Guy said. “The Thunder big man has not historically acquitted himself well against the Spurs, who can match his length down low. Holmgren was under this line in each of the four regular season matchups against San Antonio. Jalen Williams is listed as available for Game 1 for OKC, who will continue to exploit the matchups they find favorable. I don’t see that involving Chet too much tonight. I’d bet this down to under 25.5.”
Dylan Harper, Spurs, Over 10.5 points
“Dylan Harper is coming off a productive series against the Timberwolves in which he averaged 14.7 points. In five of the six games, he scored at least 11 points,” SportsLine expert Mike Barner said. “He shot 56.9% from the field in the series after shooting 50.5% during the regular season. He should play around 25 minutes a game, and he could see a couple of minutes more if Stephon Castle or De’Aaron Fox get into foul trouble guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That’s enough playing time to put Harper in a favorable position to hit this over.”
Jalen Williams, Thunder, Over 15.5 points
Williams has missed the last six games due to a left hamstring strain, but he is off the injury report heading into Monday’s game. He has averaged 20.5 points in two postseason appearances this season after averaging 17.1 points per game during the regular season. Williams played a crucial role in Oklahoma City’s playoff run last year, averaging 21.4 points in the playoffs. SportsLine’s model has him scoring 18.0 points against the Spurs on Monday to provide value at this number.
