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Reading: NBA odds: How Victor Wembanyama avoiding additional discipline has impacted Game 5 odds, model simulations
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Viascore > Blog > NBA > NBA odds: How Victor Wembanyama avoiding additional discipline has impacted Game 5 odds, model simulations
NBA

NBA odds: How Victor Wembanyama avoiding additional discipline has impacted Game 5 odds, model simulations

ViaScore
Last updated: 2026/05/11 at 5:53 PM
ViaScore 3 Min Read
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San Antonio Spurs backers reacted quickly to the news on Monday that star Victor Wembanyama would not face additional punishment after his Game 4 ejection and be available to play in a crucial Game 5 on Tuesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

After ESPN NBA insider Shams Charania broke the news at 12:30 p.m. ET that Wembanyama would be available, the Spurs immediately went from 9.5-point favorites to 10.5-point favorites for Game 5, which will be played at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The Spurs money line, however, was mostly unaffected, hovering around -431, depending on the sportsbook.

Wembanyama nailed the Timberwolves’ Naz Reid in the neck with his right elbow in Sunday’s Game 4 while trying to secure a rebound early in the second quarter. The play drew a flagrant 2 foul and an automatic ejection for the Spurs’ star. San Antonio trailed 36-34 at the time and eventually lost 114-109. The series is now tied at 2-2.

After the game, Spurs coach Mitch Johnson defended Wembanyama for trying to protect himself from physical play.

“I just think that the amount of physicality that people play with with him at some level, you have to protect yourself,” he said. “Every single play on every single part of the floor, people are trying to impose their physicality on him. I get it. We get it. That’s part of the game. But at some stage … he’s gotten chucked. He’s gotten pushed down in transition, running freely, all the stuff. He doesn’t complain one time. We don’t complain because we’re just going to play. We don’t really give a s—, excuse my language, but at some stage, he should be protected. And if not, he’s going to have to protect himself. And unfortunately stuff like that happens.”

Johnson added that he thought his team’s response to playing without Wembanyama was “phenomenal.”

“I mean, we were leading there until the end, and they made some shots,” he said. “We didn’t didn’t finish the possession with some rebounds. Got some tough whistles. But Minnesota made some plays, and they finished the game. But I thought the guys reacted in a phenomenal way.”

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, gave Minnesota a 51% chance to cover when the spread was 9.5 points. The model now says the Timberwolves have a 52% chance to cover 10.5 points even with Wembanyama playing. 

Bet on Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 5 using the latest FanDuel promo code.

ViaScore May 11, 2026 May 11, 2026
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