The NBA’s eight first-round playoff series already have been filled with drama.
Victor Wembanyama took it on the chin in Game 2 — thus, so did the Spurs — making the series against the Portland Trail Blazers much more interesting. LeBron James and the Lakers, who were +550 longshots to win their series against Rockets, are up 2-0 on Houston. And the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference — the Pistons, Celtics and Knicks — all find themselves tied at 1-1 in their series.
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And, now, as each of the eight series shift to the arena of the lower seed, the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder have only solidified their status at FanDuel as the favorites to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy for a second consecutive season. After starting the postseason as the +115 favorites, they are now -130 after taking a 2-0 lead on the eighth-seeded Suns.
The SportsLine Projection Model did not like Oklahoma City when its price was +115, but after the developments of the last two weeks, the model sees some value in the Thunder even though Jalen Williams was forced to exit Game 2 with an apparent hamstring injury. The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and entered the playoffs on a 23-9 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread betting picks this season, gives Oklahoma City a 60.3% chance to go back-to-back. Given the implied odds of 56.5%, the model approves of a play on the Thunder in NBA futures betting odds.
However, that is not one of the model’s top plays entering the Game 3’s. Instead, here are four plays it likes.
New York Knicks +600 to win Eastern Conference
- Implied odds: 14.3%
- Model odds: 25.8%
Even though the Hawks rallied from a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Knicks in Game 2 and even the series at 1-1, the model still is high on New York. Jalen Brunson continues to raise his level of play in the postseason. Over his career, he averages 6.2 more points in the playoffs (25.4) than he does in the regular season (19.2). That’s the biggest increase in NBA history among players with at least 50 postseason games. The model gives the Knicks a 25.8% chance to win the East, which is far greater than the implied odds of 14.3%. The model also doesn’t mind +2500 on New York to win the NBA Finals (9.1% versus 3.8% implied odds).
Portland Trail Blazers +350 to win first-round series
- Implied odds: 22.2%
- Model odds: 37.3%
Wembanyama’s concussion changes the calculus on the series, which is tied at 1-1. The alien big man and unanimous Defensive Player of the Year is listed as day-to-day as he goes through concussion protocol. If he is unable to go — Game 3 is scheduled for Friday in Portland, while Game 4 is Sunday — that obviously enhances the chances of the Blazers, who already are playing with house money after having survived the Play-In Tournament. The model gives Portland a 37.3% chance to advance, which is far greater than the implied odds of 22.2.
Minnesota Timberwolves +190 to win first-round series
- Implied odds: 34.5%
- Model odds: 51.9%
At the risk of jinxing the Timberwolves‘ Anthony Edwards, the knee injury that forced him to miss games toward the end of the regular season has not kept him off the floor against the Nuggets. Though he has looked uncomfortable at times, he played 38 minutes in Game 1 and 40 in the Game 2 win. In the latter, he scored 30 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, though he was just 10-of-25 from the field and 3-of-11 behind the 3-point arc. Maybe most importantly, Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert was able to slow three-time MVP Nikola Jokic in Game 2, holding him to 1-of-8 shooting as the primary defender. The model says the Timberwolves win the series 51.9% of the time, which is greater than the implied odds of 34.5%.
Detroit Pistons -255 to win first-round series
- Implied odds: 71.8%
- Model odds: 85.1%
The top seed in the Eastern Conference may have restored order in its series against the Magic in Wednesday’s 98-83 victory. At one point, the Pistons led by as many as 27 points. Defense, which carried the team throughout the regular season, showed up on Wednesday, limiting Orlando to 32.5% shooting from the field while also forcing 19 turnovers. Though the series shifts to central Florida, Detroit was the third-best road team in the league this season, going 28-13. The model says the Pistons prevail in the series 85.1% of the time, which exceeds the implied odds of 71.8%.
