2 min readBengaluruMay 14, 2026 01:28 PM IST
The emergence of El Niño conditions is likely to commence during the May-June period and persist till the end of the year, the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said in its monthly ENSO update issued on May 11.
Under this evolving scenario, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in April forecast a below-average seasonal rainfall for India and expects 92 per cent of the seasonal average to occur during June to September.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon observed along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences the global weather and is, on many occasions, linked to below-average rainfall and extreme heat.
As of early May, there are ENSO neutral conditions prevailing along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and this status is likely to remain till June.
In the past, India recorded subdued monsoon rainfall, which coincided with El Niño years.
The ENSO phase is determined by the value of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. This index is the sea surface temperature departure value from normal, and is measured over the Niño 3.4 region (5ºN-5ºS, 120º-170ºW) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. When this value is 0 degrees Celsius, it is ENSO neutral. Warmer temperatures and the value above +0.5 degrees Celsius correspond to El Niño conditions, whereas cooler sea surface temperatures below -0.5 degrees Celsius mean La Niña.
The latest index value for the February-April period is -0.5 degrees Celsius. For several months, many global weather models have been warning of the impending emergence of El Niño.
