Most exit polls on Wednesday predicted a tight contest in West Bengal with the BJP having an edge, and the party’s return to power in Assam. In Tamil Nadu, the polls predicted that the DMK was likely to retain its hold, while Kerala may witness a change of guard with the Congress-led UDF ahead. The pollsters also forecast a return to power for the AINRC-led NDA government in Puducherry.
People’s Pulse gave the Trinamool Congress (TMC) 177-187 seats, BJP 95-110, Left Front 0-1 and the Congress 1-3.
But Matrize and Times Now JVC projected an edge for the BJP. Matrize gave the BJP 146-161 seats, and the TMC 125-140 seats. Times Now JVC gave the BJP 138-159 seats, and the TMC 131-152 seats.
P-Marq gave the BJP 150-175 seats, against the TMC’s 118-138.
Across projections, the Left remained largely marginal, with most estimates placing it in low single digits.
Voters show their ink-marked fingers after casting their votes in the second phase of West Bengal Assembly elections 2026, at a polling booth in Kolkata on Wednesday. (Credits: ANI Photo)
Kerala (140 seats)
While most of the exit polls predicted that the Congress-led UDF would win the elections, many indicated a close contest with the CPI(M)-led LDF. The LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has been ruling Kerala for a decade.
Axis My India predicted that UDF would get 44% of the vote share, CPI(M)-led LDF would get 39%, and BJP-led NDA would get 14%. In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, the difference in vote share between the LDF and UDF was around 6%, leading to the LDF winning 99 of the 140 seats.
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PMAQ said UDF would win 71-79 seats, LDF 62-69 seats, and NDA 1-4 seats.
Poll Matrix India predicted that UDF would get up to 75 seats, LDF 60-65 seats, and NDA up to five seats.
Kerala assembly on evening of exit polls. (Express Photo)
JVC predicted UDF would get 72-84 seats, LDF up to 61 seats, and NDA 3-7 seats.
People’s Pulse said UDF would win 75-85 seats, LDF 55-65 seats, and NDA up to 3 seats.
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In the 2021 Assembly elections, 10 of the 11 exit polls had predicted that the LDF would retain power, with many putting its tally at 93-111 seats. The LDF had won 99 seats then.
Tamil Nadu (234 seats)
Most exit polls predicted an edge for the ruling DMK-led alliance, while two polls projected an AIADMK comeback, with Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as the most uncertain variable in the contest.
The Poll of Polls placed the DMK at 112-129 seats, AIADMK at 86-103, TVK at 13-19 and others at 1–5, suggesting a close contest in which the ruling alliance may still have a route to majority, but without the sweep projected by some individual surveys.
The widest pro-DMK projection came from Praja Poll, which gave the ruling side 148-168 seats and AIADMK 61-81. It gave no seats to the TVK and 1-9 to others.
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P-Marq projected a DMK win with 125-145 seats, AIADMK at 65-85, TVK at 16-26 and others at 1-6.
Matrize placed the DMK just above the majority mark at 122-132 seats, AIADMK at 87-100, TVK at 10-12 and others at 0-6.
People’s Pulse also projected a DMK advantage, giving it 125-145 seats, against 65-80 for the AIADMK, 18-24 for TVK and 2-6 for others.
People’s Insight gave the DMK 120-140 seats, AIADMK 60-70, and TVK 30-40 seats — the strongest projection for Vijay’s new party among the surveys released Wednesday.
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But two exit polls pointed in the opposite direction. JVC projected a clear AIADMK victory, giving it 128-147 seats, DMK 75-95, TVK 8-15 and no seats to others. Vote Vibe also placed the AIADMK ahead, with 114-124 seats, against 103-113 for the DMK, 4-10 for TVK and none for others.
Assam (126 seats)
In Assam, exit polls indicated a clear lead for the BJP, reinforcing its position in the Northeast.
Matrize and Times Now JVC projected the BJP at 85-101 seats, comfortably above the majority mark. Axis estimates placed it at 88-100 seats, with the Congress trailing at 24-36.
The Congress is projected to win 23-33 seats across polls, while AIUDF and others are expected to remain in single digits.
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Most exit polls have had a chequered history and have been off the mark on several occasions in the past.
The counting of votes for all the five assemblies — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Assam — will be taken up on May 4.
Polls were conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. West Bengal saw two-phase polling on April 23 and 29.
