On Sunday, April 27th, Ekaterina Alexandrova will look to take down Daria Kasatkina at the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. Kasatkina is a little higher than Alexandrova in the rankings, but the Australian (yeah, that’s right) finds herself as a big underdog here. Kasatkina just hasn’t found any real consistency since the start of the 2025 season, and Alexandrova has been firing on all cylinders. So, while it’s a little odd to be dealing with some juice with a lower-ranked player, that’s exactly what I’m doing with Alexandrova.
I like the way Kasatkina’s variety plays on a clay court. She mixes up spins as well as anybody on the WTA Tour. However, in this specific clay-court tournament, I strongly prefer Alexandrova’s game. The Russian’s serve is a lot more reliable, and her big, powerful baseline game is a good fit for altitude clay.
As long as Alexandrova is hitting the ball somewhat cleanly, she’s going to have Kasatkina scrambling all match. And while Kasatkina is a player that can steal a lot of points, defending the baseline the entirety of the match will be a difficult way to win.
Of course, it should be noted that Kasatkina is 3-2 in this head-to-head series, and the most recent of those victories wasn’t that long ago. Kasatkina beat Alexandrova in Cincinnati last year. But Alexandrova has been a different player in 2025. Her 64.0% winning percentage is the highest she has had since 2022, and she has strong numbers as both a server and a returner. And that’s really the part of the game where she can inflict damage. Kasatkina’s serve tends to get away from her, which isn’t a good quality in Madrid.
The fact that this match will be played at night should also benefit Alexandrova. The conditions will be a little quicker, making her game a little harder for Kasatkina to manage. And while they’ll also speed up Kasatkina’s shots, those are ones that won’t be coming in with too much pace. Alexandrova will have time to get herself set and swing big.
Pick: Alexandrova ML (-172)
