Thunder guard Alex Caruso has been an integral part of Oklahoma City’s success in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. Caruso is averaging 15.8 points per game in the Western Conference Finals, but is coming off a zero-point performance in Game 4. Because of that, Caruso’s over/under for total points scored in Game 5 has dipped to 8.5, which will likely make him a focal point for NBA props bets for Game 5 of Spurs vs. Thunder at 8:30 p.m. ET. The SportsLine Projection Model is predicting Caruso to exceed his point total against the Spurs, projecting him to finish with 9.5 points on average.
Meanwhile, SportsLine expert Alex Selesnick is backing Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox to finish with over 23.5 points + assists + rebounds. “This is a significantly discounted combination line for De’Aaron Fox, who has eclipsed this in his last six postseason games, including both appearances in the Western Conference Finals,” Selesnick told SportsLine. Before locking in Tuesday’s NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the model and team of experts at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Top NBA player prop picks for Spurs vs. Thunder
- Alex Caruso, Thunder, Over 8.5 points
- De’Aaron Fox, Spurs, Over 23.5 points + rebounds + assists
- Chet Holmgren, Thunder, Under 20.5 points + rebounds
Alex Caruso, Thunder, Over 8.5 points
Caruso has been spectacular off the bench for the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, averaging 15.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. However, the veteran guard is coming off a zero-point performance in Oklahoma City’s lopsided Game 4 loss, a game in which he played just 14 minutes. He’s exceeded this point total in four of his past five postseason appearances, and SportsLine’s projection model expects Caruso to finish with 9.5 points on average in Game 5, eclipsing the posted total of 8.5.
De’Aaron Fox, Spurs, Over 23.5 points + assists + rebounds
“This is a significantly discounted combination line for De’Aaron Fox, who has eclipsed this in his last six postseason games, including both appearances in the Western Conference Finals,” SportsLine expert Alex Selesnick said. “After missing the first two games of this series, Fox logged 31 minutes in consecutive games and had Game 4 not been a blowout he was set to play more, indicating he appears to be operating without limitations. I was very encouraged by how he’s played and think this combo line presents strong value.”
Chet Holmgren, Thunder, Under 20.5 points + rebounds
“Chet Holmgren has yet to clear this prop total in the Western Conference Finals, his high being 19,” SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein pointed out. “The Thunder are getting killed when Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein share the floor (minus 36 in 68 possessions). But they’re excelling when only one of them plays. So Mark Daigneault is trying to split their time. Holmgren has not played more than 28 minutes since Game 1. This is already a tough matchup for Holmgren, and Hartenstein continues to play well. Look for Holmgren to play 26-28 minutes again and fall short on this combo line.”
