This is how it was originally predicted to go. The Pistons were perched atop the Eastern Conference standings for much of the season. The Celtics were expected to take a step back but instead finished right behind Detroit. Now both of the top seeds in the East are on summer vacation, and the Cavaliers and Knicks are still standing.
Before the season got underway, Cleveland and New York were the two favorites to win the conference. Now here they are, battling each other to do just that. Both organizations are desperate to reach the NBA Finals and compete for a championship. But which franchise needs it more? Let’s break it down
The Case for the Cavs
For much of his career, the knock against Donovan Mitchell was that he’d never made it to the conference finals. Maybe that doesn’t sound like a lofty goal, but someone like Joel Embiid — the only MVP in league history to never make it out of the second round — knows just how hard that can be. Mitchell failed to pull it off in Utah, and was open about how disappointed he was a year ago when the Cavs couldn’t manage it despite being the No. 1 seed. After winning Game 7 in Detroit on Sunday, he was asked about finally taking that step.
“A breath of fresh air,” Mitchell said. “But we didn’t just come here, this wasn’t the goal when we started the season. Even last year, when we lost to Indiana, we had our goals set on getting to the Finals. We’re just one step closer. But yeah, it’s been almost a decade of running into the same issue. For sure, I personally, and as a team, we can breathe a little bit.”
There had been some speculation that the Cavs might shake things up this offseason if they failed to beat the Pistons. That might still be the case if they don’t beat the Knicks or at least put up a good fight and make a series of it. Mitchell has two more years left on his contract, with a player option on the back end. If Cleveland isn’t in position to challenge for a championship — or shy of that serve as the Eastern Conference sacrifice to whichever monster materializes out of the West — there’s always the possibility that he opts out next summer and goes looking for a better situation.
There are questions with the other half of the starting backcourt as well. The Cavaliers placed a win-now bet on 36-year-old James Harden when they acquired him for 26-year-old Darius Garland. Harden has a player option for next season at $42.3 million. Would he be willing to opt out of that and sign for less money in exchange for more years, and how might the Cavs reallocate those funds to improve the roster if it unfolds that way? Or what happens if Harden — who has been uneven at times during his postseason career — no-shows against the Knicks as he did in Game 7 against the Pistons? It’s safe to say that the Cavs and Harden both have a lot invested in how he performs against New York.
Last year’s Defensive Player of the Year could have a lot riding on the series as well. There were reports around the trade deadline that the Bucks were interested in Evan Mobley as part of any deal involving Giannis Antetokounmpo. Mobley was fantastic against the Pistons, but if the Cavs faceplant against the Knicks and Giannis becomes available this summer, Cleveland would move pretty high up on the list of potential landing spots for Antetokounmpo. At which point Mobley would be a key asset to dangle in trade talks.
And then on top of everything else, there’s a possible reunion with LeBron James. If James doesn’t stay with the Lakers, it’s easy enough to imagine him heading home one last time — especially if the Cavs underachieve against New York. After all, this is the first time Cleveland has reached the conference finals since James left after the 2018 season. And the Cavs have never made the NBA Finals — let alone won it — without him.
The Case for the Knicks
Back in January, Knicks owner James Dolan gave a head-turning interview to WFAN. Dolan not only said that getting to the NBA Finals was something “we absolutely got to do,” but he went further and boasted “we should win the Finals.”
It’s impossible to set the expectations any higher. Despite Knicks fans recently acting like they’ve dominated the NBA for decades, last season marked the first time they’d reached the conference finals in a quarter-century. The last time the franchise won a championship was 1973. Given all that, going on the radio and saying your team should win it all — especially when doing so requires beating one of the Western Conference juggernauts — is bold in the extreme.
That kind of proclamation puts quite a lot of pressure on the team and the coaching staff. Despite reaching the conference finals last season, Dolan still fired head coach Tom Thibodeau even though he had three years and more than $30 million remaining on his contract. It’s difficult to see a scenario where Dolan fires Mike Brown if he also fails to get the Knicks into the Finals. Brown signed a four-year deal for $40 million. Would Dolan really want to pay three coaches at the same time (Thibodeau, Brown and New Coach TBD)? This isn’t the Premier League. Swapping out coaches that cavalierly isn’t usually done in the NBA. Then again, Dolan’s Declaration was unequivocal. There would be plenty of heat to go around.
More likely, you have to figure that not beating the Cavaliers might tempt the Knicks to make some roster changes in the summer. In that same WFAN interview, Dolan said the NBA isn’t like “the old Yankees where you get Reggie Jackson and this guy and this guy. And put together a team. It’s almost impossible to do that in the NBA. You have to home-grow your talent.”
It’s unclear how Dolan thinks this Knicks team was assembled, but none of their five best players are homegrown. The Knicks acquired Jalen Brunson in free agency and traded for Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges. Some of them — Bridges in particular — required expending serious draft capital in order to bring them to New York. The Knicks have invested major money and assets in that core. If they are unable to get out of the conference finals for a second straight season, they might decide that a shakeup is necessary. Like the Cavaliers, there were reports that the Knicks were interested in Giannis — both before the season began and then again around the trade deadline when there were rumors about KAT being available. The Knicks have played such good basketball during the postseason that it’s easy to forget about all that, but losing to the Cavs would undoubtedly remind everyone that New York was previously willing to alter the roster and might consider doing so again.
Verdict
It’s close. Both teams are looking at uncomfortable offseasons if they don’t reach the Finals. But in the end, the Knicks need this more. Just consider one more over-the-top Dolan prediction from that fateful radio interview from January.
“We are going to raise the banner,” Dolan said when asked why the Knicks did not raise a banner at Madison Square Garden after winning the NBA Cup. “We’re going to raise the NBA championship banner. That’s what we’re going to raise.”
You don’t hear Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert making that kind of outlandish promise. Maybe because, unlike Dolan, he actually knows what it takes to win it all.
