As we head toward the conference finals in the 2026 NBA playoffs, we’re running short of solid value positions in the NBA futures betting market. However, we’ve got one viable longshot in the Finals MVP odds who could provide an interesting sweat.
Two weeks ago in this space, we recommended taking the last feasible price on the Oklahoma City Thunder to repeat as NBA champions. They were priced in the -115 to -130 amid their first-round sweep of the Phoenix Suns and now appear poised to do the same to the Los Angeles Lakers behind a 3-0 lead heading into Game 4 on Monday night. Oklahoma City is now priced around -170 or steeper to win the Finals and -280 to win the Western Conference at most outlets, a cost-prohibitive tag that requires observers to find other avenues for backing the Thunder.
The Thunder appear to be on a collision course to the NBA Finals with the New York Knicks, who are priced at -165 to win the Eastern Conference following their sweep on the Philadelphia 76ers in the conference semifinals. They are priced at +525 to win the Finals, with the San Antonio Spurs (+400) and the Detroit Pistons (+2000) also in contention.
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In the Finals MVP race, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favorite at a price of around -170. This is basically the same price as the Thunder to win the Finals and mirrors a dynamic we often see in the Super Bowl odds as the quarterback of the favored team often has odds similar to that of his team on the money line to win the game.
Gilgeous-Alexander won Finals MVP last season and is likely to win his second consecutive regular-season MVP when the results are announced next week. Thus far in the playoffs, he is averaging 28.3 points, 7.0 assists and 3.3 rebounds on 51.6% shooting. Maintaining these numbers amid a second title run would likely net him another MVP award but we are going to pursue a lottery ticket on Chet Holmgren, the versatile 7-footer who has proved integral to the team’s success.
Late last week, Holmgren could be found with Finals MVP odds of around +5500 but already has seen that number shrink to +3500, suggesting some basketball observers who are mining for longshot value have already made this play. We made a small play at both numbers and are on board with recommending a dart throw at the current price before it inevitably shrinks.
Holmgren is currently averaging career playoff highs of 19.1 points, 9.1 rebounds and 59.3% shooting from the field. In four career games against the Knicks, the Thunder’s projected Finals opponent, he has posted numbers of 17.8 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 52.9% from the field. His production might be even more important against a Knicks club that just held the 76ers to 46% from the field and 31.2% from 3-point range.
What’s more, we’ve seen recent examples in which the NBA Finals MVP went to the second banana on the championship team. In 2024, Jayson Tatum of the Celtics was priced around -110 throughout most of the playoffs but his sidekick Jaylen Brown (+700) took the award behind his steady play as the Celtics won the series 4-1 against the Dallas Mavericks.
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