Stephen Curry is coming back. The Golden State Warriors star is expected to be cleared to return to action vs. the Houston Rockets on Sunday, according to ESPN. He has missed 27 consecutive games with a knee injury, and to come back with just five games left begs the question: Why?
The Warriors (36-41) are three games back of the Los Angeles Clippers (39-38) for the West’s No. 9 seed. They almost certainly will not catch them, meaning they will have to go through play-in games to even make the playoffs, likely amounting to nothing more than a first-round beating at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs.
Again, why?
The cost of this almost certain first-round elimination would be a lottery pick, and as we know, with the lottery odds flattened, there is no telling how high the Warriors might rise in the draw as long as they get some balls in the mix.
In the 2025 draft, the Dallas Mavericks had a 1.8% chance of landing the No. 1 pick. And what did they get? The No. 1 pick. Cooper Flagg. The 2024 Atlanta Hawks had a 3% chance of getting the No. 1 pick. And what did they get? The No. 1 pick. Zaccharie Risacher.
The Warriors have nothing to gain by advancing past the Play-in Tournament and robbing themselves of this chance at a high lottery pick, and the simple truth is that Curry gives them a far better chance of doing so. Why are they doing this?
You can look at this from every possible angle. From an upside vs. downside perspective, there is just no logic to this decision to bring Curry back. Never mind the possibility of him reinjuring the knee. And even if it has nothing to do with the injury that has kept him out these past two months, you’re also bringing a new injury into the realm of possibilities.
Look at the Los Angeles Lakers. There was no reason for Luka Dončić to be in the game in the third quarter on Thursday night. The Lakers were getting demolished. They had absolutely no chance to come back and win that game after halftime. But they put Dončić back out there for whatever reason, with zero upside, and now he has a grade 2 hamstring strain. It might legitimately cost them their season.
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For the Warriors, this season isn’t the issue; it’s already a lost cause. It’s next season that matters. They have been saying this for a while, pushing the end of Curry’s prime as far down the road as possible, but 2027 really is it. That’s the end of not only Curry’s contract, but also coach Steve Kerr’s contract, Draymond Green‘s contract, and Jimmy Butler‘s contract. It’s all been geared toward next season, and now they’re going to risk blowing that? Why?
That word just keeps coming up. Why? Why? Why? There is no upside at all to this, but the downside is huge. Chances are, Curry isn’t going to get hurt, but it’s absolutely not worth the risk. The lottery pick they would be forfeiting if Curry were to get hot and lead them into the playoffs is an extremely valuable asset.
The Warriors are in position to make a major trade this summer. Whether they will or not, who knows? But they want to have as much ammunition as possible to make one last run at title contention with Curry, who turned 38 last month. They can trade as many as five first-round picks this summer, including their 2026 pick, which they would have to make for a team they were trading with to comply with the Stepien rule. And then, from there, they could trade their 2027, 2029, 2031 and 2033 first-round picks.
All those picks are valuable, particularly the ones beyond 2027 when there is a good chance the Warriors will have officially entered into a rebuild. But a lottery pick this summer would be potentially the most attractive asset in what could be a high-end package for anyone from Giannis Antetokounmpo on down.
Throw in some young players, plus Butler or Green to match the money (depending on the trade), and Golden State can make a serious run at just about any halfway available player they desire. Unless they screw it up by getting Curry hurt, or somehow advancing out of the play-in and losing the lottery pick — a chance they are now flirting with by bringing Curry back.
One can only assume Curry’s competitiveness is driving this decision. The organization has to know better. And in this case, it is in the Warriors’ best interests to forget the rest of a dead season and start preparing for the one last potential run they have in front of them.
