India
Percent: 55.89, matches remaining: Aus (2 away)
If India win one Test and draw the other, they’ll finish on 57.02; in such a case, they could lose out on the second spot to Australia, who would finish on 58.77 if they were to also win both Tests in Sri Lanka. For India to qualify with 57.02, Australia would need to get no more than 16 points in Sri Lanka (a win and a draw).
A win and a defeat in Australia would put India on 55.26, which would leave them pinning their hopes on Sri Lanka beating Australia by at least a 1-0 margin.
Two draws would leave India on 53.51. Sri Lanka can go past that with a 2-0 win, while Australia would need at least one win in Sri Lanka to beat it.
If India draw a Test and lose the other they would finish on 51.75 and be out of the race; in such a case Australia would finish ahead of India even if they were to lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka.
Australia
Percent: 58.89, matches remaining: Ind (2 home Tests), SL (2 away)
If Australia were to win the Melbourne and Sydney Tests against India, they would be certain of qualifying for the WTC final – in such a case, they would finish on 57.02 even if they were to go on to lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka.
A win and a draw against India would leave them ahead of India even if they were to lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, but then Sri Lanka could go past Australia with a clean sweep.
If Australia were to win one and lose one against India, they would need at least one win in Sri Lanka to stay ahead in the race. The same applies if both Tests against India are drawn.
If they were to draw one and lose the other against India, they would need two wins in Sri Lanka.
Defeat in both Tests against India would push Australia out of contention.
Sri Lanka
Percent: 45.45, matches remaining: Aus (2 home)
The maximum Sri Lanka can finish on is 53.85, if they beat Australia 2-0. For that to be enough for a second-place finish, one of two scenarios have to play out in the remaining Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests:
- Both Melbourne and Sydney produce draws
- Australia win one of the two home Tests, while the other is drawn
In any other scenario, either Australia or India will finish higher than 53.85 and knock Sri Lanka out.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
