There are a lot of similarities between the pre-Kevin Durant Warriors and this Oklahoma City Thunder team, which has all the makings of the NBA’s next dynasty.
- The point guard who won MVP two years removed from his first All-Star selection
- The dominant defense built on like-sized switchers and the constant pressure they provide
- The late-lottery shooting guard who turned into the perfect wingman
- The hidden defensive gem in Draymond Green (drafted in second round) and Lu Dort (undrafted)
- The first-time head coach
And now, yet another similarity has emerged as the Thunder have raced out to a 15-1 start on the heels of their first championship. No hangovers here. No taking it easy with “nothing to prove.” To the contrary, the Thunder look as if they have everything to prove. They’re playing as if they’ve heard all this talk about parity and intend to show the world there are levels to this thing and nobody is close to theirs.
Golden State was the same way. After they won the 2015 championship, critics were anything but quiet while questioning the merits of their Finals victory over the Cavaliers, who were without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. It clearly motivated the Warriors, who shot out to a 24-0 start the next season with a clear and collective chip on their shoulder.
What’s all the more impressive about this Thunder start is that they’ve done it without their second-best player in Jalen Williams, who has yet to play a single game after offseason wrist surgery. But that’s not all. Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso have combined to miss nine games. Add in Dort and Isaiah Joe, and the number grows to 20.
None of it matters. The Thunder have more reinforcements than they know what to do with. It’s like someone called for a little extra security at the local carnival and SEAL Team 6 showed up. Ajay Mitchell couldn’t get on the court last season and suddenly he’s the Mavericks version of Jalen Brunson. There isn’t a GM in the league who wouldn’t chop off a finger for Aaron Wiggins, who has also missed the last seven games. Cason Wallace is Stephon Castle without the hype.
And these are just the side dishes. The stars are shining as bright, or more brightly, than ever. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is again averaging 32 PPG on even more efficient marks. Holmgren has taken a major scoring leap — some 33%, to be exact, from 15 PPG to 20 on 60% shooting. When those two guys are on the court together, Oklahoma City is outscoring opponents by a preposterous 29.4 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, with what would rank as, by far, the best offensive and defensive rating in the league.
All told, Oklahoma City is outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per 100 possessions. That would go down as the best net rating in history, as would their pace-adjusted 102.7 defensive rating. The No. 2 defense so far has been the Detroit Pistons at 109.6. Do the math and that’s a 6.9-point difference. That would qualify as the biggest gap between the top-ranked defense and whoever comes next in recorded history.
This is but one metric illustrating what anyone who has watched any decent amount of NBA basketball this season could tell you on sight: All this parity talk really applies to the other 29 teams. The Thunder are way better than everyone else. They’re even better, it seems, than they were last season.
And why wouldn’t they be? Everyone is young and still improving individually. The cohesion and confidence are only going to grow with more time and success together. It doesn’t mean they’re a lock for the title (though they are the favorite, at +175, per Caesars). The Nuggets took them to seven games last year and have gotten better themselves. Houston looks pretty darn good, if not great. But again, there are levels to this. And Oklahoma City is on a different one.
It begs the question whether Golden State’s NBA record of 73 wins is in jeopardy. It remains a stretch, but definitely doable for the two reasons we’ve covered. OKC is clearly motivated to build, rather than coast, on last year’s success and they have this unbelievable depth to get them through what will inevitably be one or two more prolonged absences for their top guys. In most cases, OKC’s second stringers are better than your first.
Hell, the one game they’ve lost so far was basically a fluke. Portland, a below-.500 team, erased a 22-point deficit in a game that, if you watched, Oklahoma City wins 99 out of 100 times. When the Bulls won a then-record 72 games in 1995-96, they lost two of their first 12 games. At the halfway point of 2015-16, Golden State held a 37-4 record. That means Oklahoma City would have to go 26-3 between now and Jan. 25.
More than half of those games will be at home, where the Thunder lost just six times all of last year. It’s true that the schedule, which, statistically, has been the easiest in the league so far, will get tougher, but it’s also true that the Thunder will be getting their second-best player back. Meaning, as great as OKC has looked to start this season, this is probably the worst they will be. Think about that.
Ultimately, it’s a long shot for any NBA team to win north of 70 games. It’s only happened twice in history. Chances are they’ll lose a few games to some team that has no business beating them. Throw in a few more to the other elite teams and they’ll finish somewhere around last season’s 68 — well north of the 62.5 preseason over/under oddsmakers set that is almost certainly going to end up woefully low.
That said, consider that of OKC’s 14 losses last season, four were by three points or less. Put another way, that’s one possession each. If all else is equal, how hard is it to swing four possessions the other way? It’s a simplistic way to look at it, sure, but this is going to be a close call. Oklahoma City will be within a couple possessions of swinging more than a couple 50/50 games this year, you can bet on that, and if these go in the right direction, 74 wins is absolutely in play.
