DAVID KANE: The women’s game appeared poised to take on a tripartite as recently as last spring, with conventional wisdom suggesting that while Iga Swiatek played best on clay courts, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina had the upper hand on hard and grass courts, respectively. With Rybakina receding from the sport’s top tier and Sabalenka making her biggest push yet to unseat Swiatek for world No. 1, that wisdom may yet be revised to a more simple binary: Swiatek on slow courts, Sabalenka on fast.
But that over-simplifies and over-looks Sabalenka’s considerable improvements on all surfaces. While Swiatek was undoubtedly top dog throughout the clay swing, Sabalenka was not far behind with runner-up finishes in Madrid and Rome: only an illness ended a likely bid for a first Roland Garros final. And if former Wimbledon champ Rybakina was thought to be dominant on grass, Sabalenka has been a close second, defeating Rybakina at the All England Club in 2021 and coming within two games of a Wimbledon final in 2023.
Where pressure may be at its highest for Sabalenka on hard courts, on which she has won all three of her major titles, she may be able to hit with looser shoulders on clay and grass, and she will likely be a big favorite on the latter regardless of the field. Ending the year atop the WTA rankings was clearly satisfying for the 26-year-old, but Sabalenka hardly appears content to merely bash her way to victory as she employs ever more variety to an already daunting ground game. An improved touch on clay and a net-rushing mindset on grass may see her major results invert and a possible Channel Slam in her future.
