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Reading: Who’s best positioned to land LeBron James next summer? Early look at nine teams and five scenarios in play
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Viascore > Blog > NBA > Who’s best positioned to land LeBron James next summer? Early look at nine teams and five scenarios in play
NBA

Who’s best positioned to land LeBron James next summer? Early look at nine teams and five scenarios in play

themetaworldindia
Last updated: 2025/07/28 at 4:07 PM
themetaworldindia 30 Min Read
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Contents
1. The Cavs, Knicks, Nuggets likely will only have the minimum to offer2. The Mavs and Warriors could use mid-level exceptions3. The Spurs are an easy sign-and-trade partner4. The Clippers, Heat and Nets can create cap space5. What about the Lakers?

No matter how passive aggressive he’s been about it, it certainly seems as though LeBron James will play for the Los Angeles Lakers this season. He picked up his $52.6 million player option in June. He has a no-trade clause, so the Lakers cannot move him unilaterally. Yet at that $52.6 million figure, he’s almost impossible to trade to the sort of championship contenders he’d actually like to play for. 

The Lakers have no reason to consider buying him out. Even if they are planning around the longer term, they do need to win this season in order to keep up appearances. And hey, they have LeBron James and Luka Dončić. Even if they don’t trade away future draft capital or add players on multi-year deals, they’re going to be pretty good. The two sides are therefore stuck together for the time being.

However, the way this played out guarantees one thing: James will be a free agent in the summer of 2026. He is not extension-eligible, as he signed his current contract only a year ago. He could have re-signed for multiple years had he opted out this summer, though there is no indication that the Lakers were ever willing to give him those years, and Rich Paul has claimed that he never asked for them. James, right now, is on an expiring contract. Nothing can change that. He will become a free agent next offseason.

What James will want next summer, we can only guess at. Reporting for years has suggested that he would like to retire as a Laker. Is that still true? Does he want to keep playing at all? How much of a pay cut is he willing to take to get to the right team? Is the right team a familiar one, like the Cavaliers or Heat, or is he willing to put on a fourth uniform?

While we can’t say anything for certain about James and his preferences, we can at least lay out the landscape. Let’s assume for the time being that James plays out the 2025-26 season as a member of the Lakers. When that season ends, he will have six options as to how he’d like to proceed. We’ll push retirement aside for today and focus on the other five:

  1. James could sign with any team he wants for the minimum.
  2. James could sign with most teams for a cap exception, meaning the full mid-level exception, the taxpayer mid-level exception or the bi-annual exception.
  3. James could join certain teams via sign-and-trade. Those teams would need to stay below the first apron, though, and they would have to be able to send the Lakers back an acceptable package of assets.
  4. James could join a small number of teams through cap space, signing anywhere up to his maximum so long as the team in question has the space to fit him.
  5. James could re-sign with the Lakers for anything up to his maximum, depending on what they are willing to offer.

So let’s go through these possibilities one by one and attempt to figure out which situations could make sense for James as a 2026 free agent.

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1. The Cavs, Knicks, Nuggets likely will only have the minimum to offer

If James had his druthers, his preference would likely be to play for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They check the most boxes for him. They are obviously a championship contender, having just won 64 games. It’s his hometown team, and he has alluded to wanting to retire in Cleveland in the past. It would also ensure that he retires having only played for three teams even if he’d technically moved four times. Considering how much his legacy matters to him, the notion of adding a fourth, even in his 40s, might simply be untenable. If there were a realistic way to get to Cleveland at anything remotely resembling his far market value, that would probably be his choice.

There’s just no way for Cleveland to make that happen. The Cavaliers are more than $20 million above the second apron for this season, but are even further above it for the 2026-27 campaign. Even though Dean Wade‘s modest contract expires, Jarrett Allen‘s contract extension kicks in, pushing his salary up to $28 million. The Cavaliers just have no feasible way of generating cap space or a mid-level extension short of simply offloading money. At present, they’re $34 million above the projected first apron, so a sign-and-trade is out due to a hard cap.

If James wants to return to Cleveland in the summer of 2026, it almost has to be for the minimum. Would he be willing to do that? History says the answer is probably no. James took a slight pay cut to join the Heat in 2010. He’s taken the max or a negligible amount below it every year since. That will almost certainly change next offseason, as he approaches his age-42 season, but the minimum? James is obviously worth a good deal more, unless he wants to frame it as a PR decision. Maybe that’s worth something to him, and a Cleveland team this good adding him for the minimum would obviously be formidable. Of course, that’s a double-edged sword. He’d also have to hear about how he stacked the deck to steal a fifth championship by signing for so little. He likely wouldn’t want that. At this point, the money is just too low for Cleveland to be considered a favorite.

Most of what we just covered, aside from the homecoming component, applies to the Knicks. James could compete for a fifth championship in New York. As of right now, New York has around $46 million in second-apron space. However, that doesn’t account for the new deals we expect Mikal Bridges and Mitchell Robinson to sign between now and next summer. If both are long-term Knicks, New York will blow past the second apron and only have a minimum to offer. If James is open to the minimum, and that’s already a stretch, wouldn’t he be likelier to take it in Cleveland than New York? In this scenario, the Knicks would be fighting an uphill battle.

We’ll throw the Nuggets in this group as well, just given the somewhat salacious boat trip James and Maverick Carter apparently recently took. Misko Raznatovic, a European agent who lists Nikola Jokić as a client, recently shared a picture on a yacht alongside James and his representative on Instagram with the caption “The summer of 2025 is the perfect time to make big plans for the fall of 2026!” If James has any interest in Denver, it will almost certainly have to be at the minimum. As of right now, Denver has around $23 million in second-apron space. However, that doesn’t account for the rookie extensions we expect Christian Braun and Peyton Watson to get, which will almost certainly take them over.

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2. The Mavs and Warriors could use mid-level exceptions

The Mavericks, by far, have generated the most James buzz this offseason. If they were to trade for him now, though, it would mean gutting their depth. Dallas would have to give up four or five players just to match money for James. As a free agent, things simplify tremendously. If the Mavericks extend P.J. Washington before next offseason, they’re likely in the same boat as Cleveland and New York as a second-apron team with only the minimum to offer. If not? This gets a bit more interesting.

Without Washington on the books, Dallas is looking at around $20 million in projected second-apron room before factoring in its first-round pick. That’s more than enough money to sign James to the taxpayer mid-level exception. That, however, is only slightly above the minimum. Could they to the full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception? They’d have easy mechanisms for shedding salary if needed. 

They could obviously attach their first-round pick to a contract or contracts if they need to dump money outright. As most of their salaries are low and usable, that shouldn’t be a problem. Olivier-Maxence Prosper has a team option at $5.3 million, and D’Angelo Russell has a player option at around $6 million that he may decline. Exactly how much money they’d need to clear would depend on a few other factors. James would be looking at roughly a $15 million salary in this world, and they’d need to fill out the roster below a first-apron hard cap. That’s doable, though it would take some work.

If the Mavericks are willing to stay below the first apron, that also opens up sign-and-trade doors. However, we’re keeping them in the mid-level category for the time being for a few reasons. First, Dallas is pretty tight on assets. They control none of their own first-round picks between 2027 and 2030 because of prior trades, and as tempting as a James addition would be, they’ll likely try to hoard most of what they have left to build around Cooper Flagg‘s future. 

The second is a similar problem to what Dallas is running into now. If James wants more than the mid-level exception, Dallas needs to dump more contracts to squeeze him onto their books. That is, again, doable. It’s just a matter of how much depth they’re willing to sacrifice for someone in his 40s. The answer, in all likelihood, is not that much. After all, if they were prepared to gut their roster for him, it would make more sense for all parties involved to just do it now. The Lakers could get more in a trade. Dallas could get extra seasons out of James. They’d have to give up more salary to match now than they would if James is willing to go down to, say, $25 or $30 million next season, but if you want to get into the LeBron James business, you’re probably excited enough about doing so that the extra year is worth the extra depth lost. So don’t rule out a sign-and-trade here, but clearing out a mid-level exception would be the easiest path for Dallas.

Golden State’s situation is a bit simpler. The Warriors owe around $140 million to Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green for the 2026-27 season. Adding James at a higher sign-and-trade salary would just be impractical. They’d be devoting almost their entire payroll to four players aged-36 or older, and that’s before we consider the idea that they sign Al Horford this offseason and he wants to play multiple years. Besides, Golden State’s salary structure is unsettled anyway. Until we know what the Warriors are doing with Jonathan Kuminga, we won’t know who will be on next season’s books.

Still, barring a long-term commitment to Kuminga, Golden State’s supporting cast is still cheap enough that the Warriors should have plausible paths to the full mid-level exception. That is especially true with Buddy Hield on a non-guaranteed $9.7 million salary. That gives them a unilateral way to shed money if they need to. The Warriors tried to land James at the 2024 trade deadline. He said no then. Maybe he’ll be more interested next summer.

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3. The Spurs are an easy sign-and-trade partner

At least for now, the Spurs are in the max cap space club for 2026. That will change when they inevitably extend De’Aaron Fox, but even if he takes the max, the Spurs could still very easily stay below the cap. A possible Jeremy Sochan extension would obviously cut into any remaining space, but they are so far below the first apron as of this writing that a hard cap likely wouldn’t bother them much. 

They can match money easily in a trade with Keldon Johnson and Luke Kornet, neither of whom have guaranteed money beyond the 2026-27 season. They have surplus draft capital to trade. James has a longstanding respect for Gregg Popovich, who may not be coaching the Spurs anymore but is still running their basketball operations. The Spurs are primed to start contending in the very near future. And, as someone who thinks deeply about his place in NBA history, the concept of retiring on Victor Wembanyama‘s team might appeal to James, specifically. Wembanyama is widely expected to eventually assume James’ place as the face of the sport and its best player. If James were to actually play for the Spurs, he could pass him the metaphorical baton as a teammate.

Still, there would be a few obstacles. The most notable is that these teams dislike each other, with some reporting during the Kawhi Leonard saga suggesting that Popovich simply wouldn’t trade with the Lakers. This team, the star would be on the other side, and while there may not be such direct animosity, there would be the reality that these teams are competing with one another in the Western Conference. Why would the Lakers want to help the Spurs? They’d have to be confident they were losing James anyway and simply salvaging the best deal they could.

But remember, the Spurs didn’t trade for Kevin Durant, likely preferring to preserve their assets for a younger star or simply build internally. James is one of the few stars still playing that is actually older than Durant. They’d likely only want him at a reasonable price, both in terms of salary and assets. So the Lakers couldn’t count on getting a substantial haul back. All of this combines to make San Antonio somewhat unlikely, but as possible sign-and-trade partners go, the Spurs have the clearest logistical path.

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4. The Clippers, Heat and Nets can create cap space

As much as the Clippers have improved this offseason, they’ve committed very little long-term money. As of right now, they only have four guaranteed contracts on their books for the 2026-27 season: Kawhi Leonard ($50 million), Ivica Zubac ($19.6 million), Derrick Jones Jr. ($10.5 million) and Yanic Konan Niederhauser ($2.9 million). Pretty much everyone else is on either a team-option or a non-guaranteed deal.

James Harden is on a somewhat unique deal. He has a player option, but most of his contract is non-guaranteed. Basically, he can choose to become a free agent unilaterally, but if he picks up the option, the Clippers can waive him and pay only around $13 million to do so. If they have a path to LeBron, though, odds are Harden would cooperate and opt out. This would allow the Clippers to give both he and James substantial salaries while potentially keeping some of their supporting talent. 

At the very least, the Clippers would have the cap room mid-level exception in this scenario. They’d also have minimum-salary contracts to offer, and the Clippers have done quite well recruiting with those in the past. Perhaps Bradley Beal opts into his player option, but more likely, he opts out and chases a bigger payday.

On paper, this plan appeals to pretty much everyone involved. James could remain in Los Angeles and stick it to the Lakers. Steve Ballmer has been trying to do that ever since he bought the team, and in this case, he could do so without giving up draft picks or cramming his books with long-term salary. The Clippers could still maintain their long-term flexibility. They’d just be able to do it while attempting to win in the present with James, Harden and Leonard, who likely wouldn’t require long-term commitments. Harden would get his best chance at winning a championship. The only question would be how much depth the Clippers would be able to keep. The answer to that would come down to how much of a pay cut he and James would be willing to take. Considering how affordable some of the Clipper role players are, it wouldn’t have to be a very big one to matter. Kris Dunn is only owed around $5.7 million, for example, and he’s an All-Defense-caliber guard.

Miami would have a bit more work to do. Even if they offload their first-round pick before the 2026 NBA Draft, they’re only looking at around $20 million in cap space if Andrew Wiggins picks up his $30.2 million player option. James might like to play with Wiggins, though, so a compromise here might be trading Jaime Jaquez Jr. That would allow Miami to pay James around $25 million. If he needs more? That’s when you start looking into Wiggins trades, or hoping he opts out entirely.

The basketball fit here makes sense. James has succeeded with both versatile defensive-minded big men in the Bam Adebayo mold and high-scoring, 3-point shooting guards like Tyler Herro. Davion Mitchell‘s offensive growth makes his defense even more valuable. Wiggins is a plug-and-play 3-and-D wing that can create a bit on the ball. The Heat generate cheap depth out of thin air. They have arguably the best coaching staff in the NBA. The Eastern Conference is a mess and would give James a far clearer path to the Finals than he’d have out West.

How much bad blood remains from when James left the Heat? Pat Riley has said he’d be open to a reunion. It’s not clear how James would ever feel about one, and he hasn’t hinted at any such desire as he has with Cleveland. Returning to Miami would at least prevent him from adding a fourth team to his ledger, if that’s a priority for him.

There’s also the matter of talent at play here. The Heat fit in basketball terms, but this is still a perpetual play-in outfit. Just think of the other teams we’ve covered here. Cleveland is already a 64-win team. Golden State, Dallas and the Clippers employ fellow future Hall of Famers that he’s either previously played with or has battled against deep into the playoffs. San Antonio has the best young player since his own youth. Would an Adebayo-Herro core entice him? Could uber-athletic young center Kel’El Ware grow into the sort of teammate that might entice him? Does Miami have another trick up its sleeve to improve, perhaps by trading Wiggins? The last time Pat Riley acquired James, he also landed Chris Bosh. Maybe there’s another Bosh out there to make this a more desirable landing spot for LeBron.

We’ll give the Nets an obligatory mention here. We won’t know quite how much cap space they’ll have until the Cam Thomas situation settles, but they should once again operate below the cap next offseason. That means they’ll likely have the money for a James chase, and they have the draft picks to trade for another star if they want to go all-in. Still, we won’t consider them all that likely for the time being. They’re an entire roster away from serious winning at this point. But hey, it’s New York (and James’ favorite borough!), and the Nets have the money, so sure, they deserve acknowledgment.

Cap space is the easiest mechanism for star movement even if it’s become a rare one lately. The Heat and Clippers can both create the money to pay James appropriately without involving the Lakers. If James really does enter free agency with an open mind next summer, that makes them serious threats to land him if they choose to pursue.

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5. What about the Lakers?

Right now, relations between the two sides here appear strained. That doesn’t mean that a breakup is inevitable. Even if it means acting on a year-to-year timeline, this partnership might still make sense for everyone. At the very least, the summer of 2026 might not be the opportune moment for a split.

For now, the Lakers will have full Bird Rights on James as a 2026 free agent. If they choose to operate above the salary cap, they can pay him anything up to his max to return. At one point, it looked as though the Lakers might be targeting 2026 free agency as the moment to drastically remake their team. Austin Reaves will have a low cap hold before he inevitably re-signs on a new, expensive deal. Jaren Jackson Jr. was an ideal possible running mate for Dončić before he re-signed in Memphis. Now, however, 2026 free agency looks unappealing.

The Lakers could still create cap space to facilitate a superstar trade. If one makes sense, they’ll do it. Their whole goal for the moment is finding Dončić a true, long-term running mate. But that player seemingly does not exist in free agency, so if the Lakers can’t get him through a trade, their best bet would probably be to sign their 2026 free agents to one-year deals and reorient around 2027 free agency. 

For the time being, that is when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić are slated to hit the market, which is why there has been so much reporting about the Lakers preserving space for that summer. They’ve given out player options for the 2026-27 season to Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart, but aside from Dončić, whom they expect to extend this offseason, the only players on their books for that season at the moment are Jarred Vanderbilt (player option), and Dalton Knecht and Bronny James (team options). Their books are almost entirely clean.

All of this is very fluid. The Lakers are trying to keep their books clean to facilitate a star addition at some point. However, they do still want to win in the interim. Therefore if the summer of 2026 arrives and that star addition hasn’t happened yet, keeping James on a pricy one-year deal might be their best course of action. That is especially true given how many of their own free agents are younger and may demand multi-year deals. If Ayton thrives as a Laker this season, he is going to opt-out and seek a long-term deal. Rui Hachimura could command starter money from someone. In a scenario in which those players walk, James could help keep them afloat in the shorter term.

Or perhaps the Lakers do make a star addition next offseason. They’ll certainly have more to trade with, as their 2033 first-round pick unlocks and their 2026 pick becomes movable after draft night. Perhaps in that world, they look close enough to championship contention that James is willing to stay on a substantial discount to chase his fifth ring. He was willing to take a steep pay cut in the 2024 offseason to help the Lakers chase Klay Thompson. This would likely be a far bigger one. But at that point, he’ll be in his age-42 season. He might like the idea of easing into a smaller role next to Dončić and another star enough to do what it takes.

The overall point here is that nothing is settled. We don’t know where the Lakers will be next summer. We don’t even know how good this year’s team will be. Maybe they’re so good that James and the team squash whatever beef they have and commit to a championship push. That’s not crazy. They were just a No. 3 seed. Rob Pelinka has a bit of a history of forcing his teams to prove they’re good enough to warrant in-season improvements. He didn’t make a Russell Westbrook trade before the 2022-23 season. He finally pulled the trigger in February. The Lakers reached the Western Conference finals. Perhaps James could convince him to invest further assets into this year’s group by February of 2026.

We just don’t know. We can say with relative certainty that James will become a 2026 free agent. We just don’t know what will happen once he gets there. While there are numerous scenarios in which he leaves the Lakers, we can’t rule out the idea that he stays either.

themetaworldindia July 28, 2025 July 28, 2025
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