Jonathan Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors appear no closer to a resolution on their contract discussions nearly a month into free agency, as he and the rest of the top restricted free agents around the league continue to struggle to get the kinds of offers they’re looking for.
Kuminga is the most interesting of the bunch, as the former No. 7 overall pick has tons of talent but hasn’t shown his full potential in Golden State. The Warriors want him to play a role around Stephen Curry — and now Jimmy Butler — but Kuminga wants a larger opportunity to be the guy and wants to be paid as such. He hoped someone would view him as a potential star in free agency and make a big overture either by way of an offer sheet or in a sign-and-trade, but that’s yet to happen and the stalemate figures to continue into August.
This week we got even more of an understanding of why Kuminga and the Warriors are having such a tough time hammering out a deal or finding a suitable trade, as Fred Katz of The Athletic polled 16 front office executives around the league and found that there’s no real consensus on Kuminga’s value and what the Warriors should offer.
The Athletic recently polled 16 people who work in rival front offices, asking them what they believe would constitute a “fair” contract for Kuminga, given today’s circumstances. They were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. Answers ranged from $17 million to $25 million in average annual value. The mean average annual value in the poll was $20.4 million.
One executive suggested a two-year contract. Ten mentioned three-year contracts. Four people said four years. And one fan of Kuminga’s game suggested the largest deal (both in years and average annual value): $125 million over five years.
Kuminga is seeking something at the top end of that range, but the fact that only one person out of 16 was interested in offering that kind of deal explains why this situation is in a stalemate. There aren’t many teams that would sign him to that kind of deal, and the Warriors certainly aren’t one of them given the role they want him in short term. That said, Golden State still has plenty of reason to sign Kuminga to a sizable deal, albeit a reasonable one in that $20-25 million annual range, as they need that kind of tradable contract to make additions to their roster.
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As some executives pointed out to Katz, Kuminga signing the qualifying offer and walking next summer as an unrestricted free agent would be a disaster, as he’s one of their few potential opportunities to make a significant move. They have two max players in Curry and Butler, Draymond Green at just under $26 million per year, and then a big drop off to Moses Moody’s $11.5 million deal. They need another midsize deal if they’re going to be able to add legitimate talent to this roster via trade, but the question is how many years and how much money is right for both parties.
Some execs suggested a smaller version of the Jalen Green contract, as he got three years, $106 million last summer (with a player option) and was promptly traded for Kevin Durant this offseason. A similar contract structure for less money would make Kuminga a very tradable deal, while also giving him a chance to cash in again soon if he ends up popping in the next two years.
That all seems reasonable, but at this moment neither party is willing to do what’s necessary to get a deal done. Eventually they’ll have to come to some sort of agreement, because the qualifying offer is a dangerous proposition for both sides, but given the lack of consensus on what Kuminga’s value is, it won’t be surprising to see this drag on until much closer to the start of the season.
