The highlight of Tuesday’s six-game slate in the NBA is the Golden State Warriors visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s the only matchup featuring a pair of former league MVPs in Golden State’s Stephen Curry and OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Curry will play after missing the past three games with an illness. The Warriors lost the first two and including playoff outings had lost eight straight games without Curry before breaking the streak Sunday with a 114-83 home blowout of an incredibly short-handed Indiana Pacers team.
I’ve put together a two-leg same-game parlay for Warriors vs. Thunder that pays out at plus money.
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Warrirors vs. Thunder same-game parlay (+116)
- Stephen Curry Under 6.5 first quarter points
- Thunder money line
The future Hall of Famer Curry is likely to move up on the NBA’s all-time scoring list on Tuesday as he is 14 points away from tying Alex English (25,613) for 23rd. I certainly think Curry’s conditioning will be in some question tonight after dealing with that illness, which is one of the reasons why I give the Warriors almost no shot of winning. Plus, the Thunder have multiple stellar perimeter defenders to throw at him including SGA, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Alex Caruso — although another defensive standout, Lu Dort, will miss the game with an injury.
Curry is averaging 26.8 points per game and is shooting 45.4% from the field (including 38.9% from long distance) and 95.3% from the free-throw line. His next 40-point game would be his 12th since turning 35, which would tie Michael Jordan for the second-most behind LeBron James (15). Curry is +1400 to reach 40 tonight (not a bet I’d recommend). I doubt he approaches 30 points (+265), as this feels like a terrible spot for him. It also might be a blowout, which could potentially lead to even fewer minutes for the star guard.
Note that this also marks the front of back-to-back to start the Warriors’ longest trip of the season, so Steve Kerr surely would like to limit his key players’ minutes if possible. The NBA schedule-makers did Golden State no favors as Tuesday-Wednesday will mark its fifth back-to-back already. No other team has been scheduled for more than three between Opening Night and Nov. 19.
Kerr likely won’t play Curry for more than a handful first-quarter minutes, that’s seemingly for sure, for conditioning reasons. Perhaps his legs aren’t quite there yet on all those likely 3-point attempts. And if Curry tries to get into the paint, OKC has twin 7-foot towers in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
The SportsLine Projection Model has Curry forecasted for 23.1 points; no quarter-by-quarter numbers but 23.1 divided by four is 5.8, so that’s another reason I like Under 6.5 in the first even though he’s averaged 7.0 PPG in the first quarters this season (5.5 last season). Consider the situation and the opponent. You’d also think Kerr will backload Curry’s minutes in case the game is in doubt in the fourth quarter.
This starts a five-city, six-night trip for Golden State, which is 1-5 SU and ATS away, and the Thunder have looked just as dominant as they did last season on the way to their first NBA title. They have the league’s best record at 10-1 and best points-per-game differential at plus-13.6. OKC leads the league in scoring defense at 108.8 PPG and in free throw percentage (86.2%), among many other things. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Thunder winning by 15 points, but that seems a bit too generous. Let’s simply take the spread out of play as OKC is 2-2 ATS at home but unbeaten SU there.
