The 2025 NBA playoffs continue Monday night with a pair of first-round matchups. The Cleveland Cavaliers will try to become the second team to advance to the second round as they go for a sweep of the Miami Heat. In the nightcap, the Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets with Stephen Curry and Co. going for a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Now that the 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Odds via DraftKings
One last chance to take advantage of Cleveland’s excessive “run every pick-and-roll at Tyler Herro” offense, and I think I’m getting the hang of this now. I’m tempted by the Darius Garland scoring line at 16.5, but given his big toe injury, the Cavs have no reason to force major minutes on him. Donovan Mitchell still has Davion Mitchell to contend with, but Ty Jerome’s scoring runs a bit hot and cold. Fortunately, Game 3 gave us a workaround, as Jerome dished out 11 assists. If you assume he controls the ball a lot with an injured Garland and that the Heat can’t defend him in pick-and-roll without using a help-defender, he’ll be able to successfully take advantage of the openings that creates to rack up more assists. The Pick: Jerome 4+ assists
Odds via DraftKings
Call this one a hunch. I think the Rockets are tying this series on Monday. Golden State’s Game 3 offense was basically entirely Stephen Curry. Obviously, Jimmy Butler returning would change that, but even if he does play it will likely be through meaningful pain. The Warriors just haven’t diversified their offense enough in this series for me to believe that a defense as great as Houston’s won’t have some adjustment that forces them to do so in Game 4. Asking Gary Payton II to score 16 points again seems unrealistic since he’d literally never done that in a playoff game before Saturday. If Buddy Hield were more consistent, well, the Warriors wouldn’t have been able to get him for less than $9 million this season. Houston’s offense has been a mess as well, but in fixable ways. They just missed all of their 3s in Game 1. They shot 19 of 48 in the paint in Game 3, which is just unsustainably bad. Slightly better finishing gets their offense back on track Monday and we head to Houston for Game 5 of a tied series. The Pick: Rockets +3.5
