One key may be the Pegula return. Can she use it to turn Sabalenka’s pace against her, and rattle her into double faults? In the semifinals, Pegula’s countrywoman, Emma Navarro, was able to do that to Sabalenka at times. If Pegula can stay in the same error-free groove she was in against Muchova, she’ll be tough to beat, even for the WTA’s No. 2. In her one previous meeting with Sabalenka on these courts, during the Western & Southern Open in pandemic 2020, Pegula won in three sets.
This match will also be played in the head, of course—Sabalenka’s head in particular. She has more experience on this stage, but is it the right kind of experience? She lost in the final here last year to another American, Coco Gauff; the crowd was so loud, and so in favor of Gauff, that Sabalenka said it “blocked my ears” and led to her error-filled meltdown in the third set. But Sabalenka also faced a pro-American audience in her semi against Navarro on Thursday, and she held up much better.
This match could teeter on a knife’s edge, and on the state of Sabalenka’s nerves. But she’s been the favorite since the start of this tournament for a reason. Winner: Sabalenka
