Following a tournament marked by drama, comebacks, and meltdowns, the fortnight-long trudge to the inevitable is complete.
In a repeat of the title clashes at the French Open and Wimbledon this summer, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, far and wide the best players in the world, will meet in the final of the US Open on Sunday. The anticipation of the third chapter of their Major final trilogy this year will reach a fever pitch, especially in front of the expectant and boisterous New York crowd. Even Donald Trump is set to be in attendance.
Both players, who will now have won all eight Majors since the start of 2024, have elevated themselves to a level above the crowd below them to a point where they are now only losing matches to each other. Since Sinner’s return from his doping ban in the spring, the two players have coincided at five tournaments, and met in the final of each.
Their first-strike tennis is a mark above everybody else at the moment; they play an aggressive attacking game, and the weight of shots they produce from the baseline is unmatched. Against each other, they hardly change course. The way they mix their relentless ball-striking with deft touches and speed of court coverage in their matches has already found its way to the viral bite-sized highlight reels. There is little doubt left that they have now built the rivalry that is reshaping men’s tennis.
Late on Friday, Sinner rolled Canada’s Felix-Auger-Aliassime 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 to reach his fifth consecutive Major final. He became only the fourth man in the Open Era – after Rod Laver, Roger Federer, and Novak Djokovic – to reach every single Major final in a calendar year. His streak of consecutive hardcourt victories at the Grand Slam level extended to 27. Only Federer (36) has ever won more.
Nothing else could prove the superiority of the Italian’s hard court expertise above pretty much everyone else right now than his performance on Friday. Sinner was far from his best and felt some physical discomfort in the middle of the match. But even against a peaking, resurgent opponent, he did not need to find form; third gear was enough for him to race to the finish line and leave unscathed.
Alcaraz comes into the proceedings red hot. He crushed a competitive Djokovic in straight sets in the other semifinal on Friday. He has never served better, never been more ruthless with his groundstrokes, and his all-court game has never looked better on a hard court. The five-time Major winner may be entering Sinner’s domain, but he arrives with ideas of acquisition on his mind.
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“If I’m playing against Jannik, obviously I’m going to take things (from) the past matches that I’ve played against him. The past one or the past three matches, I’m going to take note, and I will see what I did wrong, what I did great in the matches, just to approach the final in a good way,” Alcaraz said on Friday.
“I love these challenges. I love to put myself in these positions. He’s someone who pushed me to (the) limit, which is great, because then you have the best feedback you can have as a player,” was Sinner’s take.
From the baseline, Sinner holds the edge. On the quicker courts, the ball bounces right into his strike zone, allowing him to unload his pure ball-striking consistently and constantly. Small chinks in his armour have been refined by his coaches, Simone Vagnozzi and Darren Cahill. The Italian is now more adept at mixing up the patterns. He changes direction more often by taking his backhand down-the-line, and has markedly improved in hitting his forehand on the run. These are both areas where Alcaraz has targetted him in the past.
But it is impossible to suggest that form and confidence will not play a part. That is where Alcaraz has the edge. Not only has he ruthlessly powered his way past the draw in New York without dropping a set, he is now into his eighth consecutive tour-level final. He won five of the previous seven.
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Sinner may not have needed his best, but Alcaraz has unfurled it this fortnight regardless. Their serving performances are indicative of that. Sinner’s first-serve success rate is hovering around 50 per cent, while Alcaraz is around 80. If the pattern continues, the Italian will give his opponent more second serves to crush and more opportunities to put him under pressure.
There is also the matter of their record with each other. Alcaraz leads Sinner 9-5, but more crucially, he beat him five times in a row before Sinner got one back at Wimbledon. Alcaraz’s game – his seamless mix of net play and drops with baseline power – disrupts Sinner in a way no other player does, which is why the Italian will need more laser-eyed focus than he has shown this tournament.
At stake for Sinner is the chance to equal Alcaraz’s Major haul of five titles. At stake for Alcaraz is to usurp the World No. 1 ranking that Sinner has held for more than 50 weeks. But the psychological edge, in a burgeoning rivalry that is quickly defining the sport, will be of greater value.
