The 4-seed Denver Nuggets travel to play the 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Western Conference Semifinals on Monday. The Thunder are coming off a first-round sweep in the 2025 NBA playoffs, taking down the Memphis Grizzlies 4-0. Meanwhile, the Nuggets had a battle in the first round, defeating the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 7 to advance.
Tipoff is at 9:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 225.5. Before locking in any Thunder vs. Nuggets picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Nuggets vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Nuggets vs. Thunder:
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Oklahoma City -9.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 225.5 points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder money line: Oklahoma City -441, Denver +337
- OKC: Thunder are 55-28-4 against the spread this season
- DEN: Nuggets are 41-46-2 against the spread this season
- Nuggets vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Nuggets vs. Thunder streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Nuggets can cover
Guard Jamal Murray is an active ball handler and shot creator. This postseason, Murray is averaging 22.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. He had five games with 20-plus points in the first round. On May 1, Murray had 21 points, eight boards and eight assists.
Center Nikola Jokic remains arguably the best overall player in the world. Jokic ranks first on the team in points (24), rebounds (11.6), assists (10.1) and steals (2.3). The 30-year-old recorded three triple-doubles in the first round. Nevertheless, Jokic finished with 16 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists in the Game 7 win. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Thunder can cover
Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the most crafty scorers in the league. In four games in the first round, Gilgeous-Alexander logged a team-best in points (27.8) and assists (6). The 26-year-old has more than 30 points in back-to-back games. On April 26, he poured in 38 points, five rebounds and six assists.
Forward Jalen Williams continued his stellar campaign in the first-round sweep. Williams averaged 23.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He totaled at least 20 points in six straight games going back to the regular season. In his last matchup, Williams racked up 23 points, four boards and five assists. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Nuggets vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Nuggets vs. Thunder and is leaning Under the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Nuggets vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
