The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will look to regain the upper hand in their best-of-seven series when they battle the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal matchup on Friday in the 2025 NBA playoffs. OKC evened the series with a 149-106 win on Wednesday. The Thunder (68-14), who won the Northwest Division, are 34-8 on the road in 2024-25, including the playoffs. The Nuggets (50-32), the fourth seed in the West, are 29-16 on their home court this season.
Tipoff from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 10 p.m. ET. The teams have split four previous playoff series. The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 232.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Nuggets picks, check out the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, including a 3-0 mark in the playoffs, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Nuggets vs. Thunder:
- Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Oklahoma City -5.5 at DraftKings
- Thunder vs. Nuggets over/under: 233.5 points
- Thunder vs. Nuggets money line: Oklahoma City -218, Denver +181
- OKC: The Thunder have covered the spread in 57 of their last 90 games (+25.10 units)
- DEN: The Nuggets have hit the game total over in 54 of their last 89 games (+15.50 units)
- Thunder vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Thunder vs. Nuggets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been dominant this postseason. In six playoff starts, he is averaging 29.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.2 steals in 35 minutes. In Wednesday’s rout of the Nuggets, he poured in 34 points, while dishing out eight assists and grabbing four rebounds. He registered a near triple-double in the Game 1 loss to Denver, scoring 33 points, while adding 10 rebounds, eight assists and two steals.
Forward Jalen Williams is one of four Oklahoma City players averaging double-figure scoring this postseason. In six starts, he is averaging 21 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.3 steals and one block in 33.3 minutes. He is coming off a 17-point, seven-assist and four-rebound effort in Wednesday’s win. In a 114-108 win at Memphis on April 24, he poured in 26 points, while adding six rebounds, five assists and two steals. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Center Nikola Jokic is averaging a near triple-double this postseason. In nine starts, he is averaging 25.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, 9.2 assists, two steals and one block in 39.4 minutes. He was dominant in the 121-119 Game 1 win over the Thunder, scoring 42 points, while adding 22 rebounds, six assists and two blocks in 42 minutes. He registered three triple-doubles in the seven-game first-round series win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
Point guard Jamal Murray is one of six Denver players averaging at least nine points per game during the playoffs. In nine starts, he is averaging 21.7 points, 5.3 assists, 5.2 rebounds and one steal in 41.2 minutes. In Monday’s series opener, Murray scored 21 points, while adding six boards and six assists. He had 43 points, seven assists, five rebounds and three steals in a 131-115 win over the Clippers in Game 5 of their first round series on April 29. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Thunder vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Thunder vs. Nuggets 10,000 times and is leaning Under the total, projecting 220 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Thunder vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread cashes in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Nuggets spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
