The Boston Celtics could be without superstar Jayson Tatum (wrist) on Wednesday, but one of the reasons why the Celtics are the reigning NBA champions is their depth. Even with stars like Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis in Boston, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard were the team’s two leading scorers in a 103-86 victory over the Magic is Game 1. Should those looking into making NBA prop bets on Wednesday expect these role players to shine again, especially if Tatum is out? Pritchard, who won the NBA Sixth Man of the Year and had 19 points in Game 1, has an over/under of 11.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook. Other betting apps have moved the number to 12.5 points already, so is he a player to include in your Wednesday NBA player props?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Cole Anthony Over 4.5 points (-135)
Anthony scored four points in 10 minutes in Game 1 as the Orlando guards minute allotment has been far from a perfect system to predict lately. But Anthony scored 26 points over 20 minutes in the Magic’s Play-In Tournament victory over the Hawks, so they showed trust in him in that important game and were rewarded with a strong performance. The 24-year-old guard averaged 9.4 points per game this season and scored at least five points in 21 of 25 games since the start of February.
“I have struggled taking low lines set well under a player’s regular season average in these playoffs (Hauser 4.5, Bogdanovic 5.5), but this one is just too tempting to pass up,” Oh said. “He does average nearly 1.5 points less on the road at 8.9, but that’s still way over this line. He scored 5+ points in 20 of 34 (58.8%) road games.” Bet365 is offering this at -135 odds.
Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 points (-130)
The model projects Allen at 13.7 points and views this as a buy-low opportunity given Allen has finished Under this number in three of his last four games. However, he only played one minute in one of those games and Allen had 12 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1 against the Heat. Allen hasn’t scored more than 12 points in any of his last five games and although that can add the potential for a late-game sweat waiting for Allen to hit the Over, Oh expects the Cavaliers to take advantage of their size in Game 2.
“I’m going to go with his strong overall season trend of 14.3 pts per game (28-14 Over),” Oh said. “Bam Adebayo and Kal’el Ware only had one personal foul each in Game 1 with Allen and Mobley combining for just 21 points (less than Bam’s 24 alone). I’m looking for Cleveland’s bigs to come out more offensively aggressive to get Miami’s bigs in foul trouble.” Caesars Sportsbook is offering this at -133 odds while other sportsbooks have juiced the number even higher with some moving his point total to 12.5 points.
Stephen Curry Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-135)
Curry averaged 10.4 rebounds + assists per game over the regular season and the model is projecting the same 10.4 total for Wednesday. The Future Hall of Famer is more than just an elite shooter and he’s actually showcased that more on the road, averaging 11.4 rebounds + assists away from Golden State compared to 9.5 at home. He’s had at least 10 rebounds + assists in 23 of 37 games (62.2%) on the road this season. Although Curry only had six rebounds and three assists in Game 1, he’s averaged at least 11 rebounds + assists in each of the last five postseasons, including in the 2022 and 2023 playoffs.
“The line is low because Houston is a great rebounding and defensive team and Steph has only averaged 9.4 (3-4 over) vs. the Rockets the last two seasons,” Oh said. “The game total is down to 203, which is 23 points less than the line (226) was in their April 6 matchup. Our 5.4 projected assists does reflect this fact (he averages nearly six on the road), but while teams could play at a slightly slower pace, this significantly lower total also should mean a lot more missed shots and rebounding opportunities to make up for fewer assists.” DraftKings is offering this at -135 odds.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Wednesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Wednesday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 103-69-1 (+2703) over his last 177 NBA picks.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 142-95 (+3035) over his last 237 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, which includes a pick on one of Boston’s stars.
