The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs continues on Saturday with a four-game slate, including Game 3 between the Warriors and Rockets in the Western Conference. Warriors small forward Jimmy Butler is questionable to play after leaving Game 2 with a pelvic contusion. Houston cruised to a 109-94 win in that game, as shooting guard Jalen Green poured in 38 points and drilled eight 3-pointers. His over/under for points scored on Saturday is 20.5 in the latest NBA odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while his over/under for 3-pointers made is 2.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Chet Holmgren Under 28.5 pts + reb + ast (-109)
Holmgren posted double-doubles in the first two games of the series before finishing with 24 points and eight rebounds in Game 3. He surpassed this prop total in all three of those games, but his line has increased by 16% in just two games. Oklahoma City is a 15-point favorite in this matchup, so there is a strong possibility that Holmgren sits for most of the second half in a blowout.
“We are projecting him for just under 26 PRA in 31 minutes because we do think he is due to cool off from 3pt range (5 for 10 in Game 3, 11-22 in the series) AND the Thunder will likely blow out Memphis and will let Chet sit for most of the 2nd half,” Oh said.
Kris Dunn Over 3.5 rebounds (+120)
Dunn has played at least 22 minutes off the bench in the first three games of the Clippers‘ series against the Nuggets, finishing with 17 total rebounds in those outings. He is coming off his best rebounding game of the series, pulling down eight boards despite playing the fewest minutes (22) of the three games. His rebounding numbers actually dipped when he played heavy minutes in the regular season, as the Clippers were relying more on his offense than his defense/rebounding in those outings.
“I love that Bogdan Bogdanovic is doing zilch off the bench offensively while Kawhi, Harden and now Norman Powell are in an offensive groove because it should keep Dunn on the floor for 25 to 30 minutes (29 min projection) assuming Game 4 isn’t the blowout that Game 3 was,” Oh said. The model is projecting 3.5 rebounds exactly, creating value at these plus-money odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alperen Sengun Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+105)
Sengun has been filling up the stat sheet to open this series, including five combined steals in the first two games. He has gone Over this prop total in eight of his last 12 games, despite not recording a block so far against Golden State. If Butler is unable to play for the Warriors, Sengun could get more shot blocking opportunities against Jonathan Kuminga in the frontcourt.
“He is projected for 1.2 Steals and 0.8 blocks which are in line with his 1.1 STL + 0.8 BLK season averages and we always jump on +$$$ on a line under both the projection and average for a starter with consistent minutes,” Oh said. Bet365 has the best line at +105.
Want more NBA picks for Saturday?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some popular props on Saturday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Saturday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 109-72-1 (+2987) over his last 182 NBA picks.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 145-98 (+2977) over his last 243 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Saturday, which includes a pick on one of Denver’s stars.
