Three of the four games on the Tuesday NBA schedule feature the home team with the chance to close out their series in five games and advance to the conference semifinals in the 2025 NBA playoffs. The final of the four-game slate features a pivotal Game 5 with the Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets (+1.5, 208), with the series tied at 2-2. Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.5 points, 13.5 rebounds and 10.8 assists this series after averaging a triple-double over the regular season and could be a popular selection on betting apps for Tuesday NBA player props. Jokic is +125 to record a triple-double on DraftKings Sportsbook, so is that a wager to include when making Tuesday NBA player prop bets?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Obi Toppin Over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Toppin is averaging just nine points, 1.8 rebounds and one assist over 16.5 minutes per game this series, but after the Bucks lost Damian Lillard to an Achilles injury in Game 4 and now face an elimination game on the road, Oh wouldn’t be surprised by a one-sided outcome on Tuesday. The Pacers are 7.5-point favorites, and if the Pacers are cruising toward a victory, that means an opportunity for more minutes for Toppin as the starters can rest in preparation for the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Oh notes Toppin has gone Over 12.5 PRA in 18 of his last 25 games overall, and in 33 of the 37 contests he’s played at least 20 minutes this season.
“He is projected for 13.2 in 18 minutes, which is not a lot of value, but I think the projection is closer to his floor,” Oh said. “The model is not factoring in the high likelihood that the Bucks will be totally unmotivated and get blown out. So I’m looking at Toppin as the player who is more likely to exceed his projected minutes by 25%+ and if he plays 25 minutes he could be in for 17 PRA.” Bet365 offers the best odds for Toppin’s Over at -115, compared to other sportsbooks that have juiced the number more.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 made 3-pointer (+100)
Poringis made two 3-pointers in Game 4 and made at least two triples in each of his final four regular-season games. He was off to a cold start from deep to begin the postseason, missing his first 10 3-point attempts, but after scoring 19 points in just 22 minutes with two 3-pointers on Sunday, the 29-year-old appears back to form. Porzingis made at least two 3-pointers in 31 of 46 games this season (67.4%) for the Celtics.
“He is projected for 2.3 made 3-pointers and averages 2.3, so we have a very nice plus-money bet on a line under his projection and average,” Oh said. “We will jump on a buy-low spot based on his 0-10 first three games. I wouldn’t worry about this being a blowout and that hurting his Over chances. The Over is 15-6 (71.4%) even when Boston is an -11.5 favorite or better.” DraftKings is offering this play at +100 while other betting apps have this play at minus-money.
James Harden Over 3.5 turnovers (+128)
After taking 22 shots in Game 1, Harden has dialed down his shooting aggression in the last three games, averaging 14 field-goal attempts per contest, but he continues to serve as the key facilitator. Harden is averaging 9.5 assists this series, but he also has four turnovers in two of his last three games, given his high usage rate for the Clippers. The model projects Hraden at 3.9 turnovers on Tuesday and he averaged 4.2 turnovers per game this season, so Oh sees strong value in the opportunity to play this at plus-money.
“Harden averages way more turnovers on the road (4.7) than at home (3.7) and the Over is 32-10 (76.2%) on the road this season,” Oh said. “Between him looking to pass more and the refs swallowing the whistle on drives to the hole, I see him having at least four turnovers.” Bet365 is offering the best odds at +128.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Tuesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Tuesday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 111-79-1 (+2408) over his last 191 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in for Tuesday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Alex Selesnick, aka PropStarz, who is 128-92 (+1363) over his last 220 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who PropStarz is including in his NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, which includes a pick on one of Boston’s stars.
