The Denver Nuggets will host the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 7 of their Western Conference first-round series in the 2025 NBA playoffs on Saturday night. Denver is playing in its fourth Game 7 since the 2019 postseason, going 2-1 during that stretch. The Nuggets will try to slow down Clippers stars James Harden and Kawhi Leonard, who scored a combined 55 points in Game 6. It was Harden’s first win in an elimination game since 2020, and he has an over/under of 21.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook in Saturday NBA prop odds.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Christian Braun Over 10.5 points (-122)
Braun was Denver’s fourth-leading scorer during the regular season, averaging 15.4 points per game. The 24-year-old is averaging 11.2 points during this series, but that average is being dragged down by some low-scoring outings early in the series. He has reached double digits in three straight games and is coming off a 14-point showing in Game 6. The model has him scoring 13.6 points in Game 7.
“We are still getting buy low value because he only scored 5 and 9 in games 2 and 3, but those 2 games are his only unders in his last 17 games,” Oh said. “He put up 11+ points in 35 of 43 games (81.4%) at home.” FanDuel Sportsbook is offering this play at -122 odds.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 points + rebounds (-106)
Porter is another Denver player who is undervalued in this game, as he averaged 18.2 points and 7.0 rebounds per game during the regular season. He has been battling a shoulder injury, but that has not stopped him from playing in all six games. Porter had 21 points/rebounds in Game 4 and 16 in Game 5 before a quiet Game 6. This is an elimination game, so Denver cannot afford to limit Porter’s minutes on Saturday. The model has him finishing with 22.7 points + rebounds to provide clear value on the Over. FanDuel is once again offering the best price at -106.
Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 points (-115)
Jokic has taken a step back during the playoffs after averaging 29.6 points per game during the regular season. He is only scoring 25.3 points per game against the Clippers, and his shooting percentage has dropped seven percentage points from the regular season. The big man has only reached the 30-point mark once in the series, and he has gone Under his point total in four of his last five games. SportsLine’s model is projecting 27.0 points for Denver’s star on Saturday. DraftKings Sportsbook has the best line at -115.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Saturday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Saturday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 114-84-1 (+2150) over his last 199 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in on the total for Game 7.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 150-105 (+2701) over his last 255 NBA player prop picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA picks for Saturday.
