The New York Knicks were winless in four contests against the Boston Celtics this season. The Celtics will now host the Knicks (+9, 212.5) for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Jalen Brunson scored 40 points, including the winning 3-pointer, in the Knicks’ 116-113 closeout victory over the Pistons last Thursday, and his over/under for points scored is 27.5 in the latest NBA prop bets today, so how should he factor into making Monday NBA player props? He is +900 on FanDuel Sportsbook to reach 40 points again, so is that a play to include in Monday NBA player prop picks?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Jrue Holiday Over 8.5 points (-120)
Holiday is off the injury report after missing the final three games with a hamstring injury against the Magic, so he should be cleared for Monday. Holiday scored at least nine points in each of the two playoff games he played while playing at least 33 minutes in each contest. Holiday will likely be asked to guard Brunson the majority of the game and his defensive prowess will guarantee him significant minutes and more chances to score. Holiday, who averaged 11.1 points per game this season, averaged 13.2 points against the Knicks, and has scored at least nine points in seven of his last eight games against New York.
“Payton Pritchard’s points line is just 7.5, and Derrick White’s is just 14.5, so oddsmakers are not indicating that they will get more minutes and shots than normal, if anything, they are both priced for less than normal,” Oh said. “Holiday is one point guard who can defensively deal with Brunson’s physicality at point guard and the key to stopping New York is clearly stopping Brunson, so Holiday needs to play 30+ minutes.” Bet365 is offering the best odds at -120 while other sportsbooks have juiced the odds.
Nikola Jokic Over 3.5 turnovers (-135)
The model projects 16.5 turnovers for the Nuggets against the Thunder dominant defense and has Jokic projected for 4.3 turnovers. Given his high usage, the model projects Jokic to account for 26% of the team’s turnovers. Jokic had five of Denver’s 12 turnovers (41.7%) and four of Denver’s 12 turnovers (33%) over the final two games of its series against the Clippers, leading the model to see strong value in Jokic having Over 3.5 turnovers. The Thunder led the NBA in forced turnovers (17 per game) this season.
“Oklahoma City forced 73 turnovers by the Grizzlies in four games and while the Clippers have an excellent defense, the Thunder are on another level and it will take a game or two for Denver to get used to the defensive pressure,” Oh said. “Denver struggled initially with 47 turnovers in the first 3 Clippers games vs. just 33 in the last three games.” DraftKings is offering this play at -135.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 points (-130)
Hartenstein had 11 points and 12 rebounds in 25 minutes as the Thunder completed their four-game sweep over the Grizzlies on Saturday. He averaged 9.0 ppg against the Grizzlies in the series while scoring at least 11 points in two of four contests. The model projects Hartenstein to play between 25-29 minutes on Monday, and when he plays in that range, Hartenstein went Over in 27 of 34 games (79.4%) while averaging 11.2 ppg this season.
“This is an ACT NOW with the line as high as -9.5 (-109) or -140 at 8.5 on some books,” Oh said. “The model is projecting 9.3 points, which is well under his season average of 11.1 (43-19, 69% over), and his 16.7 average (3-0 over) vs Denver.” BetMGM is offering this play at -130 odds as one of the few betting apps still offering Hartenstein at Over 8.5 points.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Monday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 116-85-1 (+2240) over his last 202 NBA picks and he already has multiple picks locked in for Monday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 151-106 (+2671) over his last 257 NBA player props picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including picks for Monday, which includes a play on one of Boston’s stars.
