England’s immediate reaction to their Edgbaston hammering was to crank up the pace for Lord’s this week, drafting in speedster Jofra Archer for his first Test in four years on the back of 18 county overs in an innings for Sussex a fortnight ago.
With Jasprit Bumrah likely to be the only change for India, replacing Prasidh Krishna to join an in-form Akash Deep and a rejuvenated Mohammed Siraj, the visitors may have just awakened their best active pace trio in time for the hallowed turf that has backed the seamers even in the Bazball age. Since June 2022, no English venue has been more conducive to the pacers than Lord’s. Of all the 227 wickets that have fallen across seven Tests here in the period, 203 have been nabbed by the fast bowlers, collectively averaging 25.43, with a dismissal recorded every 42.7 deliveries.
As much as it instils hope in the England camp, there will be a strand of concern hanging over the ostensible venue record of the chosen pace trio, comprising an ageing home specialist, an untested pace gun and a sprightly seamer preparing for his first match at the venue. Besides Archer and Brydon Carse injecting pace, Chris Woakes’ wavering form in this series will be put to a firm test at a venue where he is considered indispensable.
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Entrusted with the swing command in home Tests post James Anderson’s retirement, Woakes seems to be almost the perfect fit. 140 of his 184 Test wickets have come at home with a 45.5 strike rate bettered only by Fred Trueman (44.9) among the 22 Englishmen who have picked at least 100 wickets in the conditions. 32 of these wickets have come at Lord’s at a staggering 12.90 average and 31.4 SR. The catch? Only five of these dismissals have occurred in the last five years, with his best burst of 6/17 coming against Ireland in 2019. In two Tests in 2024 against the West Indies and Sri Lanka, Woakes struggled to reel in four wickets at a 60.9 strike rate in 50.4 overs, distinctly above his career home strike rate (45.5).
Besides the Bumrah-Prasidh swap, India will be primed to retain the batting-heavy make-up from Edgbaston, with spinners Ravindra Jadeja and Washington Sundar likely to hold more important roles with the bat. At a venue where spinners have had a negligible hand across all five days in recent years, a punt that India could well consider taking is adding more reliable overs of seam bowling at the expense of Nitish Kumar Reddy.
The left-arm angle of Arshdeep Singh could have a look in at a ground where similarly tall men of his tribe (Mitch Starc and Marco Jansen) have troubled England between 2022-23 with 14 wickets at a 37.7 SR. Facilitating the inclusion of an extra pacer against a mercurial England bowling attack will also require faith in a strong top-order showing, the backbone of India’s famous win in 2021.
The two teams (Australia and South Africa) that have recorded 300-plus first-innings scores since India’s last visit have inflicted the only two defeats to England under Ben Stokes at Lord’s. Run-making hasn’t been a hassle for this Indian side against England either, their 1780 runs are the highest-ever for any team in the first two matches of a Test series.
Interestingly, India’s Siraj-Bumrah (11) combine has picked up more wickets at Lord’s this decade than England’s three specialist pacers (5), ahead of a match that could reveal the true fabric of the host’s seam bowling under skipper Stokes.
