2 min readBengaluruMay 25, 2026 03:00 AM IST
Even as it braces for heavy rainfall, with the entire state remaining on ‘yellow’ (maintain watch) alert till May 28, the southwest monsoon seems unlikely to hit Kerala on May 26 as was earlier forecast.
For the past four to five days, with the monsoon advance still hovering over the Andaman Sea and neighbourhood areas, the IMD has avoided the mention of onset over Kerala in its daily forecasts. The latest weekly forecast, issued on May 21, mentioned that Kerala onset would occur sometime during May 28-June 3.
On Sunday, the IMD said, “Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin Area, southwest, southeast and east central Bay of Bengal along with remaining parts of the Andaman Sea during the next two to three days.”
On May 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said that the southwest monsoon advance into Kerala was likely before the normal onset date, which is June 1.
“This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26, with a model error of ± 4 days,” the IMD had said.
The monsoon onset over Kerala is significant as it marks the commencement of the four-month season over the country, lasting through September.
This year, the southwest monsoon arrived on May 16, which was before its normal schedule, over the Nicobar islands and many parts of the Andaman Sea, the Andaman Islands and neighbourhood areas – both in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. On May 23, it further advanced into a few more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Comorin area, southwest, southeast and east-central Bay of Bengal besides most parts of Andaman Sea.
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Even if the monsoon onset is not realised on May 26, there will still be five days before the normal onset date of June 1. Moreover, the onset has no links to the monsoon’s further progress or rainfall quantum.
India receives over 70% of its annual rainfall during June-September. The IMD’s second-stage long range forecast is expected to be released during the last week of May. This year’s monsoon is crucial as it will progress during an evolving El Nino along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
