At the moment, I just don’t think Tien has the strength required to consistently finish rallies in slower conditions. He also has a problematic second serve, which makes him a little too easy to break when the ball is bouncing high and sitting for returners. Also, for as good of a mover as he is, there’s a difference between moving on hard courts and moving on clay. Sliding is a skill that players need to work on.
With all of that in mind, I like Opelka’s chances of winning this match. Sure, he isn’t the greatest mover in the world, and his first serve is going to be a little easier for Tien to return in Rome than it would be elsewhere. But Opelka has actually had success in Rome before. In 2021, he beat Richard Gasquet, Lorenzo Musetti, Aslan Karatsev and Federico Delbonis on his way to the semifinals, where he put up a decent fight in a 6-4, 6-4 loss to Rafael Nadal. Opelka’s serve is dangerous in any conditions, as it’s borderline unreturnable when he’s hitting his spots. Also, Opelka likes the slower conditions along the baseline, as these court speeds give him the time he needs to track down more balls.
The only thing I’m a little concerned about with Opelka is that he retired in his match against Ignacio Buse in a Challenger he played in France last week. Opelka was experiencing some discomfort in his hip, and that has been a problematic area for him in the past. But I’m just hoping that was a bit precautionary and that Opelka just wanted to make sure he’d be right in Rome. If he is, this is a match he really should win. And honestly, even if he isn’t, there’s a chance he’ll retire in the opening set and bets will be voided.
Pick: Opelka ML (-105)
