Tommy Paul is coming off one of the biggest victories of his career, a 6-1, 6-4 win over Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Paul was just 9-22 against Top 10 opponents heading into that match, and he was also on a three-match losing streak against Medvedev. Paul is likely feeling some serious relief after that performance. He’s probably feeling pretty good about his quarter-final matchup with Hubert Hurkacz, too. But the Pole has found an impressive gear in Rome, and it’s a little hard to picture Paul finding a way by him, as well.
Ultimately, I think that Hurkacz’s serve will be the difference, as is often the case in his matches. Paul is just 19-25 in clay-court matches at the ATP level, and his hold percentage is 76.0% in that span. Hurkacz, who has a 90.3% hold percentage this season, is holding at 86.0% on clay over the last 52 weeks.
