The 2025 Australian Open is going to give tennis fans what they’ve been asking for: Novak Djokovic versus Carlos Alcaraz. Unfortunately, this match will take place in the quarterfinals. But either way, it’s a spectacle whenever these two take the court. Djokovic has had the recent head-to-head success against his younger rival, as he beat him in the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics last year. And while Alcaraz did beat Djokovic in the Wimbledon final, one can easily excuse that absence by noting the 37-year-old was fresh off meniscus surgery. And before that, the 24-time Grand Slam champion had won two in a row against Alcaraz — with both coming on hard courts. However, it’s best not to read too much into what we saw last season. Instead, you should view this as a good opportunity to back Alcaraz at a great price. Let’s get into why.
Djokovic has produced some good tennis over his last two matches. It’s not easy to earn straight-set wins over Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka, especially on hard courts. But neither one of those guys brought their usual level. The two of them looked completely uncomfortable with playing a legend on a massive stage. We know Alcaraz won’t feel the same way. He has beaten Djokovic in back-to-back Wimbledon finals.
With Djokovic not having a massive mental edge over his opponent, it’s crucial that he’s able to find the level we have seen at times over the last couple of years. Some of it was there against Machac and Lehecka. After two matches in which he looked to be struggling to hit winners, the ball-striking was better against the two up-and-coming Czech stars. However, those two didn’t do themselves any favors. They needed to put first serves in the box, find angles in baseline exchanges and test Djokovic’s legs/baseline maneuverability. We didn’t see any of that in either match. That makes it hard to buy into Djokovic’s form.
Alcaraz is going to throw the kitchen sink at Djokovic. Not only does he bring to this match his usual variety and overall athleticism, but his serve looks improved and the backhand certainly seems like less of a weakness. There simply won’t be many things Djokovic can do that will rattle Alcaraz, outside of being nearly perfect with the serve and forehand. That’s more or less what needed to happen at the Olympics.
Adding to all of this is the fact that the courts are playing very slow in Melbourne. Alcaraz is the worst version of himself on speeding fast hard courts, which is why he has never had real success at the Australian Open — and why he looks completely out of place indoors. But he’s arguably at his absolute best on slower hard courts. The Spaniard’s Indian Wells track record speaks to that.
If Djokovic isn’t able to regularly hit clean winners against Alcaraz, he’ll just be hoping to go into lockdown mode and outlast him. But given Alcaraz’s ability to do something similar, I don’t see it happening. And that’s especially true with Alcaraz in peak physical condition, while Djokovic has had some trouble dealing with the heat and humidity throughout the week.
All in all, this feels like a good opportunity for Alcaraz to earn his first hard-court win against Djokovic. And hopefully laying 2.5 games won’t be a backbreaker. Considering Alcaraz’s ability to break serve and run away with sets, I’d be surprised if it is.
Pick: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-140)
