Did someone put an injury curse on the Denver Nuggets?
One game after three-time MVP Nikola Jokic was lost for at least four weeks with a hyper-extended left knee, the Nuggets lost Jokic’s backup, Jonas Valanciunas, to a right calf strain in Wednesday’s win over the Raptors. Like Jokic, Valanciunas will be out for at least four weeks, according to reports.
Denver already had been playing without injured starters Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Christian Braun (ankle) and Cam Johnson (knee).
On Friday, the Nuggets that are still standing will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Arena. Though the Cavaliers (19-16) have gotten off to a slow start relative to last season, they have won their last two games, against the Spurs and Suns.
Cleveland is a big 13.5-point favorite against injury-depleted Denver.
While Cavaliers vs. Nuggets is the marquee attraction on Friday, there are other options on a sporting landscape that includes 10 NBA matchups and four college football bowl games. Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet for Friday, Jan. 2. All times Eastern.
NBA best bets, where to watch
Nuggets at Cavaliers
Time: 7:30 p.m. | Location: Cleveland | TV: Prime Video | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Cavaliers -13.5
The Cavaliers have started to come around a bit offensively. Over their last six games, they are averaging 120.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks seventh in the NBA over that time. They are 4-2 over that stretch, with the only losses coming to the Knicks and Rockets, two of the league’s best teams. For the season, Cleveland is now up to 116.3 points per 100, which is 10th in the league. On Friday, the Cavs will face a Nuggets team that had just 110.4 points per 100 without Jokic, far below its season average of 123.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, says Cleveland has a 66.0% chance to cover and assigns a B grade to Cavaliers -13.5.
Thunder at Warriors
Time: 10 p.m. | Location: San Francisco | TV: Prime Video | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Warriors +8.5
The Thunder (29-5) may have a Spurs problem, but the rest of the league has a Thunder problem. Oklahoma City is 0-3 against San Antonio but 29-2 against everyone else. On Friday, the Thunder will face a Golden State team that has been playing better basketball recently. Over the last 11 games, the Warriors are 7-4 with the sixth-ranked offense (118.4 points per 100 possessions) and eighth-ranked defense (111.8). For the season, they are averaging 114.3 points per 100 on offense and 111.8 on defense. The SportsLine Projection Model says that Golden State has a 68.0% chance to cover and gives a B grade to Warriors +8.5.
College football best bets, where to watch
Liberty Bowl: Navy vs. Cincinnati
Time: 4:30 p.m. | Location: Memphis, Tenn. | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Cincinnati +7.5 | Expert: Navy -7.5 (Mike Tierney)
The Cincinnati Bearcats (7-5) had the most efficient passing offense in the Big 12 this season (157.41). But that was behind star quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has decided to enter the transfer portal and opted out of the bowl game. He is one of at least a dozen Cincinnati players who have opted out. Even with those players, the Bearcats ended the season on a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Tierney notes that Navy (10-2) ranks 34th in the country is scoring offense (31.2 points per game). “These aren’t your grandad’s Midshipmen,” he says. He adds, “Navy can score enough for a cover even with the hook.” The SportsLine Projection Model disagrees and says that the Bearcats have a 65.0% chance to cover and assigns a B grade to Cincinnati +7.5.
Holiday Bowl: Arizona vs. SMU
Time: 8 p.m. | Location: San Diego | TV: FOX | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Over 51.5 | Expert: Arizona +1.5 (Bruce Marshall)
The Arizona Wildcats (9-3) ended the regular season having won five straight games, including a 23-7 victory over rival Arizona State in Tempe. The Wildcats’ turnaround was keyed by their defense, which ranked fourth in the country in passing yards allowed (155.9 per game). Arizona also led the country in turnover margin (+1.33 turnovers per game). The Wildcats have the defenders to slow SMU’s passing offense, which ranks 12th in the nation (283.5 yards per game). Marshall also questions whether the Mustangs (8-4) will be motivated to play in this game after narrowly missing out on reaching the ACC Championship Game. The SportsLine Projection Model says there’s a 58.0% chance the teams combine for 52 points or more and gives a C grade to Over 51.5.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
Time: 8 p.m. | Location: Charlotte | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Mississippi State -3 | Expert: Wake Forest +3.5 (Bruce Marshall)
Quarterback Robby Ashford ended the season on a roll for the Demon Deacons (8-5), passing for 634 yards and five touchdowns against two interceptions over the last two games. He will face a Mississippi State defense that couldn’t slow a nose bleed this season, ranking 103rd in total defense (405.8 yards per game) and 94th in scoring defense (29.2 points per game). Meanwhile, the Wake Forest defense has a good matchup against the Bulldogs. The Deacs are eighth in the nation in tackles for loss (7.2 per game), while Mississippi State (5-7) is 128th in the FBS in allowing tackles for loss (7.42 per game). “The Deacs overachieved all season as they also covered seven of their last nine games,” Marshall says. The SportsLine Projection Model disagrees, saying that the Bulldogs have a 57.0% chance to cover and assigns a C grade to Mississippi State -3.
Looking ahead
NFL: Seahawks at 49ers
Time: 8 p.m. Saturday | Location: Santa Clara, Calif. | TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Seahawks -1.5 | Expert: Seahawks -1 (Larry Hartstein)
The No. 1 seed, a bye week and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs will be on the line when the Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4) collide at Levi’s Stadium on Saturday. These teams previously met in the season opener, with San Francisco escaping with a 17-13 victory at Lumen Field. Since then, the 49ers have endured numerous injuries to star players but enter Saturday on a six-game winning streak. However, Hartstein notes that Trent Williams, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are all dealing with injuries. In addition, “[The San Francisco offense has] not lit up good defenses, and Seattle’s is elite,” Hartstein says. The SportsLine Projection Model says the Seahawks have a 53.0% chance to cover and gives a C grade to Seattle -1.5.
