Nikola Jokić injury: Nuggets star’s absence changes MVP race, playoff picture, more

Nikola Jokić suffered a left knee hyperextension during the Nuggets‘ loss at Miami on Monday. That’s good news, relatively speaking. There was legitimate fear of an ACL. 

The bad news is Jokić is expected to be out at least four weeks, and probably more than that as that is just the date for reevaluation. That changes quite a lot — both for the Nuggets, who are currently sitting right on the West’s 10-loss cut line for a top-four seed, and for what was shaping up to be a photo-finish MVP race.

SGA is the runaway MVP leader now

Jokić hasn’t missed a single game this season, but with the Nuggets slated to play 16 games over the next 28 days, he’ll finish with a maximum 66 games played. The cutoff for MVP is 65 games played. That mean Jokić would have to come back on the shortest timeline possible and not miss one game the rest of the season to be eligible for MVP. Not going to happen. 

This totally clears Gilgeous-Alexander’s path to a second straight MVP (-450 to win, per BetMGM), and that would change his historic standing pretty considerably. Going from one to two MVPs is a big leap. Kobe Bryant never won a second. Neither did Shaq. Kevin Durant only has one. 

All told, only 15 players in NBA history have won multiple MVPs, with 10 of them having won at least their second by the time they turned 27: Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Jokić, Moses Malone, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tim Duncan and Bob Petit. 

If this happens, Gilgeous-Alexander would become the 16th to win at least two and the 11th to do so by the age of 27. With two MVPs, he would jump into the class of Curry, Duncan, Antetokounmpo and Petit and Steve Nash — with a long runway in front of him and a team built to keep him in MVP position for years to come. 

Can a sleeper MVP emerge?

It’s unlikely if SGA stays healthy, but it’s worth mentioning the guys who are now elevated into the tier where circumstances could break their way and they have one less hurdle to jump with Jokić out. These guys would include Cade Cunningham (+4000), Jalen Brunson (+6600) and Jaylen Brown (+25000), who are leading the top three teams in the East right now and are having absolutely incredible seasons. 

Tyrese Maxey (+15000) is doing the same, but the Sixers almost certainly aren’t going to win enough games to give him a real chance. In the West, Kevin Durant (+100000) and Alperen Sengun (+100000) would likely split each other’s vote from Houston. Victor Wembanyama (+5000) has already missed 12 games, so he’ll probably end up ineligible. 

Luka Doncic (+375) is the West’s wild card. If the Lakers were to get red hot and take over Denver’s spot in the standings as a top-three team, he could get some love if he puts up crazy numbers. Anthony Edwards (+20000) is someone to watch for the same reasons if the Wolves, currently No. 6, make a huge run. 

At the very least, all these guys are now in position to get higher votes than they were before Jokić went down. But again, something unforeseen would have to happen to SGA and/or the Thunder for someone else to actually win. 

Where does this leave the Nuggets?

This is the big question. Denver is currently No. 3 in the West but tied in the loss column with the No. 4 Rockets and No. 5 Lakers. As well as they’ve played, they’re only three games above the play-in line in what is a bumper-to-bumper Western Conference race. If things go even a little off the rails over the 16 games Jokić is set to miss at a minimum, they could find themselves in a nasty fight for a top-six seed. 

The good news is the Nuggets have gotten marginally better with Jokić off the court than they have been dating back to the championship season, but let’s keep this in proper perspective. They still struggle in a big way without him, as any team would absent the best player in the world.

*Numbers per Cleaning the Glass

Beyond the numbers, the Nuggets are equipped with more players who can scale up their offensive output this season. Jonas Valanciunas will slide into the starting center spot. Tim Hardaway Jr. can crank up. Cam Johnson has finally gotten on track from 3. Peyton Watson can play. Aaron Gordon is due back from injury soon. Jamal Murray is having the best regular season of his career. 

There’s a big difference, however, in scoring the way Murray has with Jokić running the show and consuming so much attention and doing so as the No. 1 option on whom defenses will now be disproportionately focused. It doesn’t bode well for the Nuggets that so far this year, when Murray has had to play without Jokić, they have been outscored by eight points per 100 possessions with what would rank as a bottom-five offense and defense, per CTG.