The NBA playoffs are around the corner, and, in the Western Conference, we’re finally starting to get an idea of what the matchups might look like. Entering Sunday’s 15-game slate, we know the top three seeds will be the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers, but the rest of the spots remain up for grabs.
With just one day left in the regular season, five Western Conference teams have 32 or 33 losses. What follows is an attempt to make the playoff picture a little less fuzzy: A breakdown of the various probabilities (per PlayoffStatus.com) for teams currently seeded No. 4 to No. 8, followed by each team’s remaining schedule and tiebreaker status.
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As a reminder, the top six seeds automatically get a playoff berth. Seeds 7-10 have to earn playoff spots in next week’s Play-In Tournament.
Western Conference playoff chances
How tiebreakers work
In the event of a two-way tie, the team that won the season series gets the higher seed. If they split the season series and one of the teams won its division, the division winner gets the higher seed. If that doesn’t resolve the tie, then the tiebreakers are, in order: division record (if the teams are in the same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams in both conferences, and point differential.
In the event that more than two teams are tied, the tiebreakers are, in order: division winner, record against tied teams, division record (if all tied teams are in the same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams in both conferences, point differential.
Each team’s outlook
Denver Nuggets (49-32)
- Regular-season finale: at Rockets (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Warriors (2-1), Clippers (2-2)
- Head-to-head lost: Timberwolves (0-4)
- Division record: 8-8, no games remaining
- Conference record: 31-20, one game remaining
- Note: The Nuggets will be the No. 4 seed if they beat the Rockets.
Los Angeles Clippers (49-32)
- Regular-season finale: at Warriors (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Warriors (3-0, one game remaining)
- Head-to-head lost: Timberwolves (0-3), Nuggets (2-2)
- Division record: 8-7, one game remaining
- Conference record: 28-23, one game remaining
- Note: The Clippers can clinch a top-five seed by beating the Warriors.
Golden State Warriors (48-33)
- Regular-season finale: vs. Clippers (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (3-1), Grizzlies (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Nuggets (1-2), Clippers (0-3, one game remaining)
- Division record: 5-10, one game remaining
- Conference record: 29-22, one game remaining
- Note: The Warriors will be the No. 6 seed (and avoid the play-in) if they beat the Clippers.
Minnesota Timberwolves (48-33)
- Regular-season finale: vs. Jazz (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Nuggets (4-0), Clippers (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Warriors (1-3), Grizzlies (1-2)
- Division record: 10-5, one game remaining
- Conference record: 32-19, one game remaining
- Note: The Timberwolves can clinch a top-six seed (and avoid the play-in) by beating the Jazz.
Memphis Grizzlies (47-34)
- Regular-season finale: vs. Mavericks (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (2-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Warriors (1-3)
- Division record: 10-5, one game remaining
- Conference record: 26-24, one game remaining
- Note: The Grizzlies will finish eighth (and have a chance to earn the No. 7 seed in the play-in) if they lose to the Mavericks.
Got all that? No? Well, just know that the Clippers vs. Warriors game on Sunday will have a playoff feel.
