Most of NBA history gave us a certain kind of Sixth Man of the Year winner. Between 2006 and 2022, 10 of the 17 winners were simply that season’s leading bench scorer. Voters expect gunners in the sixth man role, and they tended to reward the best of them. But they’ve gotten a bit more open-minded in recent years. None of the last three winners have been the league’s leading bench scorer, and 2024 winner Naz Reid wasn’t even in the top 10. He was also only the third center to win the trophy. Payton Pritchard last year was a bit closer to the standard archetype as a high-scoring guard, but Malik Beasley out-scored him and lost.
In other words, we can’t simply point to the bench player who’s going to take the most shots and assume he’ll win anymore. This is still an award that favors guards and points, sure, but there’s a bit more nuance involved now. It’s fair to at least bring defense and efficiency into the conversation now. Winning has always been a staple, as the last winner to miss the playoffs was Lou Williams in 2018, but with each of our past three winners coming from top-three seeds, it has seemingly taken on an even bigger role in the voting.
So let’s dive into this year’s Sixth Man of the Year odds and try to find the best value on the betting market. We’ll break the candidates into three tiers: the favorites (those with odds of +1500 or shorter), the middle of the pack (those with odds between +1500 and +3000), and the long shots (those with odds longer than +3000).
The favorites
My immediate issue with a few of the players in this tier? I’m not sure which of them are going to qualify as reserves. De’Andre Hunter came off of the bench for Cleveland last year, yes, but with Max Strus set to miss the first few months of the season, I can’t say for certain whether or not he will remain there. I’m not laying +950 favorite money for a player who may not even be eligible for the award. Anfernee Simons at +1500 poses similar issues. Boston is in such a state of flux that I can’t say with much confidence who I expect to start for them or how they will respond to injuries as the season progresses. Shaedon Sharpe (+1500) has reportedly been a camp standout, so I’d expect him to eventually start as well.
That’s a long-term fear I have for Naz Reid. Teams rarely hand out $125 million contracts to players they perceive as reserves. In the short term, though, I’m reasonably confident he won’t start for the Timberwolves, so +1000 is a fair price for the best reserve big man in the NBA. Yes, this is a guard-dominated award, but that almost gives Reid the advantage of being distinct. It’s easier for him to stand out in this crowd, and we obviously know he’s capable of winning the award because he’s already done it.
Jordan Clarkson (+1500) will absolutely be a reserve. He’s just in a too many cooks situation. Aside from the fact that he won’t be the most prominent New York reserve (or even the second-most prominent, as two of Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson and Deuce McBride will come off of the bench), the Knicks are also expected to place more of an emphasis on using deep-bench players for lineup experimentation this season. Couple that with his injuries over the past few years and he’s just not a very likely choice. This makes Reid the only worthwhile bet in this value tier.
The middle of the pack
There are players in this tier that make iffy bets because they, too, are possible starters. The difference is that the odds are so much longer that you can justify the risk. Take last year’s winner. Payton Pritchard is available at +3000 at BetMGM. I suspect Boston will start him. However, if they’re comfortable with the role he excelled in a year ago and want to start Simons for the sake of boosting his trade value, the 30-to-1 line on Pritchard is a solid value swing.
Reed Sheppard is in a somewhat similar boat. I ultimately expect him to earn a starting job in Houston, but I’m not sure that’s an opening night move for Houston. At +2200, he’s worth a swing, especially if you’re using a book that offers good value on cash outs in case it later looks like he’ll get moved into the starting lineup. The season is still a ways away, so in cases like these, it can be useful to monitor the preseason and make a more informed choice closer to the start of the season.
There are two names in this group that I suspect are simply on teams with too much talent for them to win. Jared McCain (+2700) and John Collins (+2000) could certainly be the best bench players in the NBA, but will they shoot enough? McCain shares a position with Quentin Grimes and VJ Edgecombe, and we haven’t even mentioned the three former All-Stars in Philadelphia’s starting five. Collins shares a bench with several All-Stars. Will it be easy for him to stand out next to Chris Paul, Bradley Beal and Brook Lopez?
My favorite pick in this group is probably the player with the shortest odds. I’m reasonably confident Ty Jerome (+1600) will be a full-time reserve. His health issues make it unlikely that the Grizzlies would ever start him. But Memphis has always been great at cultivating depth and empowering reserves. He was probably the best per-minute reserve last season, but he didn’t play as much as Pritchard or Malik Beasley. The Grizzlies may not be obvious title contenders, but they should be a solidly competitive team. Ja Morant missing games and Desmond Bane playing for the Magic should give him plenty of opportunities for statistical showcases.
The long shots
There are four specific players I want to point toward here, but then a broader situation to monitor:
- T.J. McConnell (+4000) probably can’t start, just from a functional perspective. He plays extremely hard in short bursts. That doesn’t translate to a 30-minute role. But he gained a lot of fans last postseason, and the Pacers should be eager to hand him control of the team for 10 minutes per half with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined. He won’t post quite the same counting stats as the favorites, but if Jerome could sneak into the conversation last season on a per-minute basis, perhaps McConnell could as well.
- Donte DiVincenzo is only going to grow more important in Minnesota as Mike Conley ages. That might mean he eventually starts, but at +6600, it’s worth the shot that Minnesota prefers to start one of its recent first-round picks (Rob Dillingham or Terrance Shannon) if it chooses to move away from Conley. We know he can score enough, and on the Timberwolves he should be on a team that’s good enough as well.
- Remember, the last time Bruce Brown played in Denver, he was good enough to earn a contract that paid him $20 million per year. High-level defenders and ball-handlers who can make corner 3s are exceedingly valuable, and that doesn’t even touch on how his cutting adds to Denver’s beautiful offense. I doubt he plays enough to get serious consideration, but there’s a chance we’re overthinking this and he’s just awesome in his second run in Denver. I’m willing to roll those dice at +10000.
- Lonzo Ball is another possible candidate in the Jerome vein. He probably doesn’t play enough, but he’s going to get loads of credit as a per-minute darling for a contender in Cleveland. His point-of-attack defense fills a known hole, but his playmaking in transition is quietly going to be pretty important here too. The Cavaliers needed an injection of chaos, and if he gives a 64-win team a new dimension, that’s something voters will appreciate. He’s well worth a +15000 flier.
And then there’s Portland. The Blazers are trying to be relatively competitive this season. They also have too many players for too few jobs. Donovan Clingan will presumably be the center. That leaves four slots for Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson and Toumani Camara (without even mentioning Jerami Grant, who has simply aged beyond being a starting-caliber player). Keep an eye on Portland. If you think you have a handle on which of those players will come off of the bench most of the season, any are at least worth a look.
