Now that the 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Yes, the Thunder are going to win this series. Yes, they are probably going to win it comfortably. But a 13-point spread in a playoff game in which a team still has its three best players available? Does that not seem excessive to anyone else? Oklahoma City was the No. 1 seed a year ago. They won two games in blowouts and two by single digits. There’s bound to be a bit of rust here while the Grizzlies are still sharp after two straight postseason games. I think the Thunder will probably win. I just take issue with the spread. The Pick: Grizzlies +13
Orlando’s offensive woes speak for themselves. This is the No. 27 offense in the NBA going up against a championship defense. But on the other end of the floor, it’s the No. 2 defense going up against an offense that it matches up fairly well against. No team is more dogmatic about preventing 3-pointers than Orlando. Their opponents took on 2,571 all season. Every other team allowed at least 2,833. Meanwhile, the Celtics nearly attempted 4,000. No team has ever been more reliant on 3s. They can diversify enough to win, but the Magic take them out of their game offensively. That’s a low-scoring formula. The Pick: Under 206
Tyler Herro just scored 30 points against Dyson Daniels‘ team. This line is a bit outdated. He’s above 24 points per game since the Jimmy Butler trade, he reached 30 in both play-in games and he topped this 22.5-point line in seven of his last eight regular-season games. The Heat have handed the offense over to Herro, and he’s going to hunt Darius Garland plenty in this matchup. Cleveland will still win, but someone on the Heat needs to score here. The Pick: Tyler Herro Over 22.5 Points
Like the Boston-Orlando game, I expect a defensive battle between Houston and Golden State. Amen Thompson held Stephen Curry to three points two weeks ago. Houston’s half-court offense is underwhelming. The Rockets make that up with historic offensive rebounding, but the Warriors are no slouches on the board, ranking seventh in rebounding rate. These teams have played slugfests this season, so I assume that trend will continue. The Pick: Under 213.5
