NBA Playoffs futures: Projection model gives 72% chance one of two teams wins title plus first-round picks

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are here, and they begin Tuesday with a pair of Play-In games between the seventh- and eighth-seeded teams in each conference. In the East, the No. 7 Orlando Magic host the No. 8 Atlanta Hawks, while the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies visit the No. 7 Golden State Warriors in the West.

The winners of those contests secure the No. 7 seeds in the NBA Playoffs and face the second-seeded teams – the defending champion Boston Celtics in the East and Houston Rockets in the West – in the first round. The losers are not eliminated, however, as they will host the winners of Wednesday’s games between the ninth- and 10th-seeded teams, with the victors of those contests – which will take place on Friday – earn the No. 8 seed in the Playoffs and meet the top-seeded clubs (the Cleveland Cavaliers in the East and Oklahoma City Thunder in the West).

Wednesday’s matchups feature the No. 9 Chicago Bulls hosting the No. 10 Miami Heat in the East and the No. 10 Dallas Mavericks visiting the No. 9 Sacramento Kings in the West. The season, in fact, ends for the losers of those contests.

The Celtics, who won their record 18th NBA championship last season, are looking to repeat for the first time since 1968-69. Nine teams have won consecutive titles since then, with the Warriors being the most recent to accomplish the feat in 2017-18.

Boston eclipsed the 60-win plateau for the second straight season, going 61-21, but did not fare well against either of its potential first-round opponents. The Celtics lost two of their three meetings with both Orlando and Atlanta in 2024-25, with both defeats against the Hawks coming at home.

In the postseason, Boston lost two of its three series against the Magic but won 11 of 13 matchups with the Hawks.

The second seed in the West, Houston likely would rather face Memphis in the opening round, as the Rockets won three of their four games against the Grizzlies during the regular season. They went 2-3 versus Golden State, with two of the losses taking place at the Toyota Center.

Houston, which has made the playoffs for the first time in five seasons, never has faced Memphis in the postseason and lost all four of its meetings with Golden State.

The lower-seeded teams in the two first-round matchups in the East that are set had the upper hand in their regular-season series, as the No. 6 Detroit Pistons won three of four against the No. 5 New York Knicks and the No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks did the same versus the No. 4 Indiana Pacers. In the West, the No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers and No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves split their four matchups, and the No. 4 Denver Nuggets and No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers did the same.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Knicks (58.4%), Pacers (55.5%), Lakers (52.6%) and Nuggets (50.4%) will win their first-round series. The model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and hit on over 62% of its against-the-spread NBA picks during the 2024-25 season, believes Detroit’s best chance to upset New York is if their best-of-seven matchup goes the distance (13.9%) but thinks Milwaukee’s best opportunity oust Indiana is in six games (16.6%).

In the West, the model feels that the best chances for Minnesota (17.8%) and the Clippers (18.1%) to defeat the Lakers and Denver, respectively, are in six games.

While its first-round opponent won’t be determined until Friday, Oklahoma City (NBA-best 68-14 record) is considered the team the model believes will capture the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy this year. The model says the Thunder win the title 38.6% of the time.

“Oklahoma City is the overwhelming favorite because their only statistical kryptonite is, they aren’t a dominant rebounding team,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model.

According to the model, the Celtics is the best bet to emerge from the East, reaching the Finals in 61.1% of simulations. Cleveland, which finished three games ahead of Boston in the conference, plays for the title 29.1% of the time.

“Boston is the only good value to win the conference because the lack of home-court advantage versus the Cavaliers is not a negative in the model’s view,” Oh says. “Boston is a better road team this season than home. It has a better straight-up record, ATS record, point differential and turnover margin on the road. … Cleveland showed signs of cracking with a four-game losing streak in March, which was notable because three defeats were on the road against West Coast teams.”

The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed picks for the first four NBA Play-In games and the openers of the four known NBA Playoff first-round series, and one of them has an A-grade pick based on simulations. You can find all of the Play-In and first-round Playoff picks at SportsLine.