It’s been a strange March in the NBA, hasn’t it? Tanking is way up. Competition at the top of the league, meanwhile, is pretty far down. The top three seeds in the Eastern Conference are all but locked in. The Oklahoma City Thunder have already mathematically clinched the No. 1 seed in the West and we’re still in March. There’s still work to be done below them, but at the moment, none of those upper-echelon West teams are playing all that well. The Nuggets, Lakers and Grizzlies are all .500 or worse in their last 10 games.
All of that has combined to sap some of the energy out of these last few regular-season weeks, leaving us to look ahead to a postseason field that is mostly already set. Emphasis on the word “mostly,” because, obviously, there is still plenty to be figured out at the bottom of the playoff brackets.
We know who our four Eastern Conference Play-In teams are. Things are a bit more complicated in the West. In theory, virtually everyone below the Thunder and perhaps the Houston Rockets is facing some measure of play-in danger. So let’s look at these races a bit more closely. Where can we find value on the Play-In Tournament market? Let’s pick one team to both make and miss the playoffs in the East as the regular season hits the home stretch, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
To make the playoffs, East: Bulls (+450)
I’m the last person who should be asking anyone if they’ve watched the Bulls lately. On Feb. 21, I ranked Chicago as the worst front office in the NBA. That’s not looking great at the moment. Since then, the Bulls are 10-6. Coby White — the back-to-back Eastern Conference Player of the Week — is averaging 29.8 points per game in March. Josh Giddey is putting up a tidy 22-9-9 this month, and perhaps more importantly, is shooting 40% on his 3s. It seems as if there’s been real addition by subtraction here. Removing Zach LaVine from the equation has empowered Chicago’s two other ball-handlers. They’re thriving with the offense firmly in their hands.
At present, the Bulls would need to win one home game and one road game to get into the playoff bracket. That home game seems like a gimme at this point. Despite losing to the Heat in the past two Play-In Tournaments, Miami is obviously a different team this time around. The Heat snapped a 10-game losing streak on Sunday. It’s also possible that the Bulls sneak up to No. 8, and therefore need to win only once. They trail the Orlando Magic by just two games in the standings as of this writing, and the Bulls have the tiebreaker. A +450 line implies playoff odds of 18.18%, but Basketball-Reference’s playoff odds have Chicago at 31.4%. The math is on your side here.
To miss the playoffs, East: Magic (+330)
If we’re pushing the Bulls in, that means either the No. 7 seed Hawks or No. 8 seeded Magic have to fall out. Don’t count on Atlanta missing the cut. The Hawks have played quite well lately, and in a head-to-head matchup, it’s worth noting that Orlando does not have Jalen Suggs available to defend Trae Young.
The core problem with Orlando remains the same as ever: the Magic can’t score. They rank 28th in offense as of this writing. They got away with that a year ago because their defense was great. It’s still quite good, but it’s slipped since Suggs went down, ranking just 12th since he first started missing games. The math here is, again, on your side. The implied odds at this line are 23.26%, but the Basketball-Reference odds suggest Orlando has a 36.7% chance of missing the postseason. The Bulls are trending in the right direction. The Magic are running out the clock until this offseason, when they can get healthier and address their roster imbalance.
To make the playoffs, West: Phoenix Suns (+600)
The math here, unlike in the East, will not be on your side. Basketball-reference gives the Suns a paltry 4.6% chance at reaching the playoffs. It’s not wrong, per se. The Suns aren’t even a Play-In Tournament lock. They currently hold the No. 10 seed in the West through a tiebreaker over Dallas, but have by far the NBA’s hardest remaining schedule. Even if they didn’t, well, if you watched much of the Suns this season, you’d understand any skepticism.
Here are the counters. First, the Suns are playing well at the moment. They’ve won five of their last six against mostly good teams. They also might have inadvertently landed on a winning formula. They have a +3.9 net rating with Bradley Beal off of the floor this season and a 14-10 record in games he’s missed. Beal has been out throughout this hot streak. Surrounding Kevin Durant and Devin Booker with role players seemingly works. The Suns don’t have great ones, but the bar isn’t especially high here. In a single-game setting, wouldn’t you want to have a long-odds ticket on two of the best shotmakers in the NBA? It’s not likely, but you’re getting well compensated for the risk you’re taking here.
To miss the playoffs, West: Sacramento Kings (-425)
I normally loathe heavy minus-money bets, but there’s not an obvious plus-money swing to take here unless you’re really, really bearish on the Grizzlies without Brandon Clarke. That’s a fair approach in a playoff series, but not in this setting. This is a pick made in concert with the Phoenix bet. The Suns have considerably more upside than the Kings do simply by virtue of employing the two best players between their rosters. The Kings carry just as much downside with their defensive roster limitations and the fact that they would need to win two games, one of which would come on the road, to make the playoffs.
In a single-game setting, Sacramento would likely be an underdog to Phoenix, especially if the Suns keep playing this well. Their path into the playoffs starts with Dallas knocking the Suns out beforehand. The Mavericks are obviously an easier opponent. If they can get to the second play-in game, things obviously get simpler in a single-game setting. But they would be massive underdogs against the Warriors, Grizzlies, Timberwolves or Clippers. In short, there’s just no easy selling point to make here. The Kings are almost as far behind as the Suns right now, but lack Phoenix’s high-end talent or recent success.
