Lakers guard Luka Doncic landed in Los Angeles after a stunning midseason trade with the Dallas Mavericks last season, and with LeBron James (back) out, Doncic has helped carry the Lakers to a 7-3 start. On Monday, they’ll visit the Charlotte Hornets for a cross-conference clash that begins at 7 p.m. ET, and Doncic should be in the lineup after a light 27-minute load on Saturday and then a day off. Doncic is known primarily for his offense, but he’s been a menacing defender of late, with nine steals in his last three games. However, the latest NBA odds list his over/under at 1.5 steals for Monday, with the Over paying as high as +122, and that’s one of the SportsLine Projection Model’s top NBA player props tonight. You can find even more best bets at the Inside the Lines live blog.
Targeting NBA player props will be a popular way to approach Monday’s NBA betting at online sports betting sites. With NBA odds available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, the ITL team’s model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, can help you find value to add to your Monday NBA picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Underdog Fantasy promo code CBSSPORTS2 to claim $100 in bonus entries with a $5 entry:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons. The model entered Week 3 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 26-13 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Best NBA player prop picks on Monday:
- Luka Doncic, Lakers, Over 1.5 steals (+122)
- Jalen Duren, Pistons, Over 2.5 assists (+130)
- Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers, Over 0.5 blocks (+127)
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Luka Doncic, Lakers, Over 1.5 steals (+122)
“This is a +$$$ bet on a line under both his 1.7 average (1.8 on the road) since ’24 and his projection of 2 steals. We are projecting two steals because the Lakers are forcing +3 more turnovers per game this season vs last, and Charlotte is averaging even more turnovers (16) than they did last season,” SportsLine senior data analyst Stephen Oh said. “He only had 1 steal in his last game but had 8 in his previous two games, so he’s been aggressive on that end.”
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Jalen Duren, Pistons, Over 2.5 assists (+130)
“He’s been an absolute scoring and rebounding monster for the past week, but he’s only 2-8 over 2.5 assists this season. He has scored 21, 30, and 22, his last three games and has put up at least 20 in 5 of his last 7 games. I’m banking on Alex Sarr continuing to be an aggressive shot blocker as he’s upped his average from 1.5 in 27.1 minutes as a rookie to 2.5 in 28.4 this season,” Oh said. “Duren will dominate the boards but may look to dish to an open shooter or someone cutting to the rim if Sarr is manning the paint. Even with a low over rate this season, he was 36-38 with a 2.7 average over 2.5 assists last season. We are projecting him for 2.5 assists, and at +130, we want to capitalize on a regression to the mean situation where he should start having a few 4 assist games to get back to last season’s levels.”
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Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers, Over 0.5 blocks (+127)
“This is another player who has been an absolute PRA monster recently. He’s a true star at this point, and that means he’s locked in for 35+ minutes. But the strategy from opponents is to try to get him in foul trouble, which is why he’s had 5 PFs in two of his last 4 games. I expect the front-court-led Magic to challenge him, and I expect him to get at least one block,” Oh said. “Last season, he only went over this in around 30% of his games, but he is currently on a 5-1 over run. Orlando’s shots blocked average was just 4.2 last season, but that’s all the way up to 5.9 this season.”
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Want more Monday NBA picks?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA picks for some popular NBA player props for Monday. Now, see NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Also at SportsLine:
NBA expert Matt Severance is 24-15 (+579.5) in his first 39 NBA picks this season. See his latest NBA predictions here.
