Since arriving in Utah with a breakout season in 2022-23, Lauri Markkanen has been one of the NBA’s best stretch fours and the ninth-year pro is off to a sizzling start this season. Markkanen is averaging 33.0 points per game thus far and has scored 29 points or more in five consecutive games. However, his scoring average is inflated by a 51-point game against the Suns earlier in the year and he needed 28 shots to get to 29 points against the Hornets on Sunday. Now he’ll be playing in the second game of a back-to-back against the Celtics, who will have a point to prove defensively after a blowout loss to the Rockets. With the latest NBA prop odds inflating Markkanen’s over/under for total points to 26.5, the SportsLine Projection Model is targeting the Under (-125) as one of its top NBA player props on Monday. You can find even more best bets at the Inside the Lines live blog.
Targeting NBA player props will be a popular way to approach Monday’s NBA betting at online sports betting sites. With NBA odds available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, the ITL team’s model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, can help you find value to add to your Monday NBA picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Underdog Fantasy promo code CBSSPORTS2 to claim $100 in site credits with a $5 entry:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past seven seasons. The model entered Week 2 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 161-120 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It also went 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Best NBA player prop picks on Monday:
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Lauri Markkanen, Jazz, Under 26.5 points (-125)
“Markkanen’s minutes are up nearly 17%, his FGAs are up over 50% and he’s shooting +6.6 percentage points better from the field. This is translating to a massive +70% (+14 more per game) increase in scoring. I’m expecting some regression in one or even all of these 3 stats for a good stretch and can hit this if he ‘only’ plays 31 minutes (not 37), only takes 18 FGAs (not 23) and only shoots 43% (not 49%),” SportsLine senior data analyst Stephen Oh said. “Boston’s defense was just embarrassed by the Rockets who shot 66% from 3pt range in a +27 pt blowout loss at home to Houston. Teams tend to lock down after a bad defensive effort like that.” BetMGM is offering the best odds, and you can bet on Towns with the latest BetMGM promo code, which gives new users up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses.
DeMar DeRozan, Kings, Over 3.5 rebounds (+100)
“He’s had 4+ in three of his last 4 games but unfortunately I took this same over on the night he only had had one board, so he owes me. I’m still going to ride with his change in production after the Kings traded De’Aaron Fox. Before the trade he averaged 3.7 rebounds (21-22 over 3.5),” Oh said. “But since then he’s averaged 4.1 and is 26-15 over 3.5 boards. His low reb average the past 3 seasons is 3.9 last season so we are getting a +$$$ value from BetMGM on a line under both his long-term average and his 3.7 projection.”
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Mikal Bridges, Knicks, Over 4.5 rebounds (+114)
“He has gone over this line in 5 of his 6 game this season and since last season his rate is +7 percentage points higher at home vs the road,” Oh said. “When it comes to rebounding you aren’t just competing vs the other team you are statistically competing with your own team, and in this case, rebounding beast Josh Hart is only playing 15 to 26 minutes and not the 40ish he was averaging for much of last season. Bridges is still playing his major minutes which is why we project him for nearly 5. “
FanDuel is offering the best odds, and you can bet on Bridges with the latest FanDuel promo code, which gives new users $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins.
Want more Monday NBA picks?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA picks for some popular NBA player props for Monday. Now, see NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Also at SportsLine:
NBA expert Matt Severance is 19-10 (+592) in his first 29 NBA picks this season. See his latest NBA predictions here.
