Now that the 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
The defining trait of the 2024-25 Miami Heat is how bad they’ve been in fourth quarters. They have a 14-28 clutch record this season, and their net rating in clutch situations since the trade deadline is -34.4. This didn’t come up against the Bulls because the game wasn’t close, but that said more about Chicago’s youth and its inability to stay in front of Tyler Herro. Those issues aren’t quite as pervasive with Atlanta, which can put Dyson Daniels on Herro and has a real closer in Trae Young. So skip the game line. Grab Atlanta’s -104 fourth-quarter moneyline on FanDuel, and just hope for a close game. If we get one, Atlanta has the advantage. The Pick: Hawks -104 to win the fourth quarter
On one side, we have a team without guards. The shortest player Dallas started against Sacramento was Klay Thompson, who is really more of a forward at this stage. Jason Kidd elected to give Spencer Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy only four combined minutes against the Kings. If that trend holds, Dallas just won’t have anyone who can break down a defense off the dribble. On the other side, Memphis will have either a hobbled Ja Morant or no Ja Morant at all. Either way, expect plenty Scotty Pippen Jr., who is a far better defender than Morant and should factor prominently into this game. I’m expecting a low-scoring game. The Pick: Under 220.5
