Tuesday is more like an opening ceremony than an opening night. Yes, we get two high-profile games, but those are really more about the pomp and circumstance. The Thunder got their rings. The NBA returned to NBC. There was drama. There was emotion. There were only two basketball games.
Wednesday is opening night for the diehards. Of the 26 teams didn’t tip on Tuesday, 24 will take the court for the first time with a total of 12 games. Those games will range the entire spectrum of competitiveness, with contenders and pretends alike vying for your eyeballs and betting dollars. So let’s go through all 12 games and make one pick for each of them using lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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No Mitchell Robinson? No Josh Hart? Jarrett Allen will be able to rebound in peace without his two tormentors from the 2023 first-round series between the Knicks and Cavaliers. Allen has averaged above this line in rebounding in each of the past six seasons, and with two key Knicks sidelined, he should be able to start off well on the glass. The Pick: Jarrett Allen Over 9.5 Rebounds
I ranked the defenses before the season. Orlando came in at No. 2 and Miami at No. 10. Tyler Herro is out, so it’s not clear where Miami’s offense is going to come from. Orlando’s offensive preseason was pretty choppy, so it should take some time for them to figure out how to incorporate Desmond Bane. Basically, I’m expecting a slugfest. The Pick: Under 217.5
I really want a prop based on turnovers in this one considering how many ball-dominant rookies the Nets just drafted. While I certainly wouldn’t extoll LaMelo Ball’s defensive virtues in most regards, the idea of him stalking passing lanes against careless freshman appeals to me. He’s averaged 1.5 steals per game for his career, so the extra juice I’m getting on two or more steals at +175 is worth the risk of trusting his defense. The Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 1.5 Steals
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You’re never going to get a healthier Joel Embiid than you do on opening night, and a questionable Jaylen Brown only underlines how limited Boston’s post-teardown front court really is. By all means, doubt Philadelphia’s long-term prospects. I’m pretty optimistic about Embiid destroying Neemias Queta, Chris Boucher and Luka Garza. The Pick: Embiid Over 25.5 Points
My first straight up game line pick. I’m a massive Toronto doubter. I don’t think the starters make any sense together, and the team will only really be viable when they’ve removed RJ Barrett from the starting five in favor of more shooting. For now, locker room politics force them to trot out the wrong players against a Hawks team that finally makes quite a bit of sense together. Trae Young has his athletic wings, who in turn have a shooting big man in Kristaps Porziņģis to space the floor. This should be a statement win for the Hawks. The Pick: Hawks -5.5
There isn’t a realistic line high enough for me not to take the over on Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s points in this game. A well-spaced offense for him against a tanker with one of the skinniest front courts in the NBA? Alex Sarr will eventually be a very good defender. Giannis might put him through the rim at some point in this game. This will be a statement from Antetokounmpo. His time in Milwaukee may be coming to an end, but he’s still here now, and he’s going to make the most of it. The Pick: Antetokounmpo Over 31.5 Points
Josh Giddey made multiple 3-pointers in 17 of his last 25 games last season. The volume is way up, and while he’s still not much of a threat as a pull-up shooter, he’s at least gotten more comfortable firing up in spot-up situations. The Pistons will make Giddey prove he’s capable of making those shots, so expect him to fire away early and often. The Pick: Josh Giddey Over 1.5 3s
Giddey had a great end of the season from a shooting perspective. Herb Jones had a down shooting year when healthy last year. Keep in mind: the Pistons lost Fred Vinson, the best shooting coach in the NBA, to Detroit before last season began. I don’t mind making Jones prove that he can maintain his strong 2023-24 shooting without Vinson in the building. The Pick: Jones Under 1.5 3s
This game has blowout potential, so don’t be surprised if key players are done before the fourth quarter. The Clippers are integrating a number of new ball-handlers. Oh, and James Harden doesn’t seem to be in great shape to kick off the season. I’m expecting the Clippers to coast to such an easy victory that Harden doesn’t have to maintain an especially high usage. The Pick: Harden Under 8.5 Assists
The Mavericks seem to be leaning heavily into Cooper Flagg as a primary ball-handler. I don’t trust the Dallas offense to shoot well enough to be viable or have enough space inside for consistently strong alley-oops. In other words, I’m quite low on D’Angelo Russell props. The Pick: Russell Under 5.5 Assists
Portland’s defense is one of the most underrated units going into the season. Minnesota’s shooting is a bit suspect despite last year’s jump. A lot of younger perimeter players like Rob Dillingham and Terrance Shannon will have to step in now that Nickeil Alexander-Walker is gone, so the transition there could get ugly. I’m expecting a low-scoring game here. The Pick: Under 221.5
Neither team can protect the basket. Sacramento has two reliable defenders. One of them is Keegan Murray, who is hurt, and the other is Keon Ellis, who is buried behind older former stars. Phoenix has Dillon Brooks. Cool. Ryan Dunn‘s shot still raises questions about how many minutes he can play. Neither team can protect the rim. I’m anticipating a lot of offense in this one. The Pick: Over 228.5
