The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament concludes on Friday with two teams punching their tickets to the NBA playoffs and two teams’ seasons coming to an end. Heat vs. Hawks at 7 p.m. ET has Atlanta as one-home favorites, per the NBA odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while Mavericks vs. Grizzlies at 9:30 p.m. ET has Memphis favored by six at home. Miami and Memphis have recent matchup advantages, which could come in handy when making NBA best bets. The Heat notched double-digit wins in their last two meetings with the Hawks, while the Grizzlies have logged three straight victories over the Mavs.
The eve of the NBA Playoffs is upon us and hitting on NBA picks just prior to its start would then allow for more sports betting opportunities for the actual postseason. SportsLine’s proven model has simulated every Friday NBA game 10,000 times and revealed exact NBA score predictions. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons and enters the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-115 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000.
Heat (+1) to cover vs. Hawks (-110 at Bet365)
Score prediction: Heat 112, Hawks 107
After an initial struggle following the Jimmy Butler trade, Miami righted itself down the stretch and is 9-3 over its last 12 games in which it played its starters. The Heat are also 5-1 over their last six road games, and they avenged that one road loss — to the Bulls — by then winning at Chicago in Wednesday’s play-in game. Meanwhile, the Hawks were just blasted by 25 points in its play-in tourney loss to Orlando, and this game taking place in Atlanta doesn’t necessarily give the team, and its best player, an advantage. Trae Young averages fewer points, fewer assists and more turnovers at home than on the road, and he’s converting on under 40% of his FG attempts at State Farm Arena this season.
SportsLine’s model has Miami outright prevailing as underdogs and covering in almost 60% of simulations, with Miami (+1) having -110 odds at several betting sites, including Bet365.
SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Mike Barner, who is 138-90 (+3232) over his last 228 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Friday, which includes a play on one of Memphis’ stars.
Mavericks (+6) to cover vs. Grizzlies (-110 at FanDuel)
Score prediction: Grizzlies 116, Mavericks 112
After a 14-point road win over the Kings on Wednesday, the Mavs are now 7-3 with Anthony Davis in the lineup. Also, unlike Memphis, Dallas’ best player is healthy as Ja Morant was forced to exit Tuesday’s loss to the Warriors with a turned ankle. Morant is listed as questionable and will clearly be at less than 100% for the Grizzlies’ most important game of the season. Him being compromised certainly hurts Memphis’ offense, and the team doesn’t necessarily have defensive strengths to hang its hat on.
The Grizzlies allow the sixth-most points per game, the second-most free throws per game, and have been undoubtedly the league’s worst team versus the spread over the last two months. Since the All-Star break, Memphis has covered in just 24.1% of games, which is by far the worst cover percentage over that span. The model has Dallas staying within range throughout this one, covering over 50% of the time, with -110 odds for Dallas (+6) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bonus pick! You can also view expert betting advice before making Friday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks from an expert who is 91-66-1 (+1830) over his last 158 NBA picks.
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