With roughly five weeks remaining in the 2024-25 NBA regular season, the race for MVP is still up in the air. Barring injury, it’s a two-man race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić, but there are a lot of interesting debates to be hard for the positioning of players behind them.
At the top, you can’t go wrong with either SGA, the betting favorite, or Jokić, who I personally still believe is having the best season. But for the first time, I’ve decided to push SGA above Jokić in my rankings after his 51-point game.
No, one game shouldn’t make a difference. But at the same time, it’s so difficult to separate these guys that it actually is going to end up being largely decided in the details. With a reminder that this is not how I think the actual voting will break down, but rather how I believe it should go, let’s get to the rankings.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Gilgeous-Alexander remains the betting favorite (-550 to Nikola Jokić’s +350) and he’s only enhanced his case by averaging 33.4 points, 7 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks on 54/50/89 shooting splits in seven games since the All-Star break. SGA leads the league in 50-point games with four (including 51 against the Rockets on Monday), and all four have come in the last 19 games.
SGA, the overall scoring leader at 33.9 PPG, also leads the league in 40-point games (9), 30-point games (37) and 20-point games (59). The only game in which he failed to reach 20 points all season was when he put up 18 on the Spurs in the first week pf the season. Do the math, and that’s 56 straight games with at least 20 points. The next-highest guy on that list is Jalen Brunson with eight.
It’s Jokić who’s most synonymous with the on/off split argument, and rightfully so (Denver falls off a cliff when he sits), but it’s SGA at plus-750 for the season that leads that column by a long shot. That’s more than 250 points better than Jokic and 350 points better than the next-highest Thunder player.
It’s just becoming increasingly impossible to deny SGA’s case. He’s never won MVP and Jokic has won it three times, and I don’t care what anyone says, voter fatigue is an absolute real thing. The Thunder are the best team in the Western Conference and Denver has slipped to No. 3. SGA is a far bigger part of an elite defense in addition to his offensive dominance. In short, it just feels like his time.
And that’s not to qualify what would surely be a deserved victory. It’s just the truth. He’s been building toward this award just like Joel Embiid did in the years preceding his MVP breakthrough. Eventually, the voters can’t deny you any longer almost independent of your competition.
2. Nikola Jokić
While SGA has been scoring through the roof, Jokić has averaged 14 rebounds and 12 assists per game since the break. He gave the Pacers 19 assists and the Pistons 15 in a four-day span. His box scores are comical: 29, 17 and 9 against Charlotte; 32, 14 and 10 against Milwaukee; 23, 17 and 15 against Detroit.
Jokić continues on track for the highest PER in history while averaging a triple-double. League-wide, he ranks third in scoring, third in rebounding, second in assists and tied for third in steals. To be top three in those four traditional categories is bonkers. Guys win MVPs with one of them. SGA ranks top three in two of them.
Jokić is a one-man offense to a degree that no other star in the league can claim, but SGA is, and has been, so great himself that I think Jokić is losing ground, especially if Denver slips in the standings. For him to be any sort of threat to SGA, it feels like Denver has to finish top two, and for now the Lakers have jumped the Nuggets.
Giannis missed a couple weeks and thus only played six games in February, but since he’s been back he’s put up 29/9/9 in a win over Dallas and 26/12/10 in a win over Atlanta. Giannis has no chance to actually win the MVP, as is the case for every non-SGA/Jokić player on this list, so it’s simply a matter of finishing order and for that his lead on Jayson Tatum is shrinking.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of voters actually have JT over Giannis at this point, but let’s not lose track of the fact that Giannis is on pace to become the first player in league history to average at least 30 points, 10 rebounds and six assists on 60% shooting. Last year he was the first to average 30-10-5 on 60%.
Keep in mind, Giannis is not a lock to meet the 65-game MVP requirement. Entering Wednesday, he’s only played in 47 games, meaning he has to suit up in 18 of the Bucks‘ final 22 games to be eligible. That goes for All-NBA, too.
4. Jayson Tatum
Tatum was a little too quick the taunt the Cavaliers with a “get the f–k outta here” dismissal after burying a corner 3 to put the Celtics up 25-3 in the first four minutes of the Eastern Conference showdown, which Cleveland came back to win last Friday. That said, don’t lose sight of the fact that Tatum finished with 46 points, 16 rebounds, nine assists and three blocks.
He’s the most expendable player on this list by virtue of the talent by which he’s surrounded in Boston, but a top-five MVP finish properly recognizes the best player on one of the best teams in the league.
Tatum’s 45/35 shooting splits are not going to wow you, but he’s still one of just four players averaging at least 26 points, eight rebounds, five assists and a steal per game. The other three are Jokic, Giannis and Luka Dončić. If you’re in that group on a potential 60-win team while also playing strong defense, you’ve reached top-five MVP status.
There are a lot of worthy candidates for this position, including LeBron James, who was just named Western Conference Player of the Month and has the Lakers in the No. 2 seed, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Edwards or even Stephen Curry if the Warriors are able to sustain this surge they’re on.
But I’m going with Cunningham, who is, at the moment, pulling off the minor miracle of lifting the Pistons (!!!) into a top-six seed with a legit shot at top four. If “most valuable” means the player whose team could least afford to lost him, Cunningham probably tops everyone. The Pistons might be the worst team in the league without him.
Cunningham is one of two players averaging at least 25 points, nine assists and six boards. The other is Jokić. His shooting numbers look a lot like Tatum’s, but much like Tatum, the pressure that Cunningham puts on defenses is superstar stuff. He is constantly getting into the paint, and his ability to punish the defenders who go under his ball screens by pulling up for 3 has taken his threat to another level.
Bottom line: At this point last season, the Pistons had won nine games. This year, they’re 35-27. That 26-win jump year over year is by far the biggest in the league, and it is disproportionately due to the impact Cunningham has all over the court. Honestly, I wouldn’t mind putting Cunningham fourth on this list with LeBron fifth and Tatum dropping out of the top five. Reasonable minds can disagree at this point of the ranking.
